Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Austin Peay State University, Clarksville, TN 37044, USA.
J Theor Biol. 2013 Mar 7;320:58-65. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.12.007. Epub 2012 Dec 13.
Malaria infection continues to be a major problem in many parts of the world including the Americas, Asia, and Africa. Insecticide-treated bed-nets have shown to reduce malaria cases by 50%; however, improper handling and human behavior can diminish their effectiveness. We formulate and analyze a mathematical model that considers the transmission dynamics of malaria infection in mosquito and human populations and investigate the impact of bed-nets on its control. The effective reproduction number is derived and existence of backward bifurcation is presented. The backward bifurcation implies that the reduction of R below unity alone is not enough to eradicate malaria, except when the initial cases of infection in both populations are small. Our analysis demonstrate that bed-net usage has a positive impact in reducing the reproduction number R. The results show that if 75% of the population were to use bed-nets, malaria could be eliminated. We conclude that more data on the impact of human and mosquito behavior on malaria spread is needed to develop more realistic models and better predictions.
疟疾感染在包括美洲、亚洲和非洲在内的世界许多地区仍然是一个主要问题。经杀虫剂处理的蚊帐已被证明可将疟疾病例减少 50%;然而,不当的处理和人类行为会降低其效果。我们制定并分析了一个数学模型,该模型考虑了蚊子和人群中疟疾感染的传播动态,并研究了蚊帐对其控制的影响。推导出了有效的繁殖数并提出了向后分歧的存在。向后分歧意味着,降低 R 低于 1 并不足以消灭疟疾,除非在两个群体的初始感染病例都很小的情况下。我们的分析表明,蚊帐的使用对降低繁殖数 R 有积极影响。结果表明,如果 75%的人口使用蚊帐,疟疾就可以被消灭。我们的结论是,需要更多关于人类和蚊子行为对疟疾传播影响的数据,以开发更现实的模型和更好的预测。