非线性预测作为一种区分时间序列中的混沌与测量误差的方法。

Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series.

作者信息

Sugihara G, May R M

机构信息

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 92093.

出版信息

Nature. 1990 Apr 19;344(6268):734-41. doi: 10.1038/344734a0.

DOI:10.1038/344734a0

PMID:2330029

Abstract

An approach is presented for making short-term predictions about the trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems. The method is applied to data on measles, chickenpox, and marine phytoplankton populations, to show how apparent noise associated with deterministic chaos can be distinguished from sampling error and other sources of externally induced environmental noise.

摘要

本文提出了一种对混沌动力系统轨迹进行短期预测的方法。该方法应用于麻疹、水痘和海洋浮游植物种群的数据，以展示与确定性混沌相关的明显噪声如何与抽样误差和其他外部诱导环境噪声源区分开来。