Rate of transmission: a major determinant of the cost of clinical mastitis.

The aim of this research was to use probabilistic sensitivity analysis to evaluate the relative importance of different components of a model designed to estimate the cost of clinical mastitis (CM). A particular focus was placed on the importance of pathogen transmission relative to other factors, such as milk price or treatment costs. A stochastic Monte Carlo model was developed to simulate a case of CM at the cow level and to calculate the associated costs for 5 defined treatment protocols. The 5 treatment protocols modeled were 3 d of antibiotic intramammary treatment, 5 d of antibiotic intramammary treatment, 3 d of intramammary and systemic antibiotic treatment, 3d of intramammary and systemic antibiotic treatment plus 1 d of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug treatment, and 5 d of intramammary and systemic antibiotic treatment. Uniform distributions were used throughout the model to enable investigation of the cost of CM over a spectrum of clinically realistic scenarios without specifying which scenario was more or less likely. A risk of transmission parameter distribution, based on literature values, was included to model the effect of pathogen transmission to uninfected cows, from cows that remained subclinically infected after treatment for CM. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to evaluate the relationships between model input values and the estimated cost of CM. Linear regression models were used to explore the effect that changes to specific independent variables had on the cost of CM. Risk of transmission was found to have the strongest association with the cost of CM, followed by bacteriological cure rate, cost of culling, and yield loss. Other factors such as milk price, cost of labor, and cost of medicines were of minimal influence in comparison. The cost of CM was similar for all 5 treatment protocols. The results from this study suggest that, when seeking to minimize the economic impact of CM in dairy herds, great emphasis should be placed on the reduction of pathogen transmission from cows with CM to uninfected cows.