1500年后的人口流动与经济增长和不平等的长期决定因素
Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality.
作者信息
Putterman Louis, Weil David N
机构信息
Brown University.
Brown University and NBER.
出版信息
Q J Econ. 2010;125(4):1627-1682. doi: 10.1162/qjec.2010.125.4.1627.
Abstract
We construct a matrix showing the share of the year 2000 population in every country that is descended from people in different source countries in the year 1500. Using the matrix to adjust indicators of early development so they reflect the history of a population's ancestors rather than the history of the place they live today greatly improves the ability of those indicators to predict current GDP. The variance of early development history of a country's inhabitants is a good predictor for current inequality, with ethnic groups originating in regions having longer histories of organized states tending to be at the upper end of a country's income distribution.
摘要
我们构建了一个矩阵，展示了2000年每个国家的人口中，有多少比例是1500年不同来源国人口的后裔。利用该矩阵来调整早期发展指标，使其反映人口祖先的历史，而非他们现今居住之地的历史，这极大地提高了这些指标预测当前国内生产总值的能力。一个国家居民早期发展历史的差异是当前不平等状况的良好预测指标，起源于有着更悠久有组织国家历史地区的族群往往处于该国收入分配的高端。
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