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人口老龄化趋势与退休后的预期寿命:基于国家的比较分析。

Trends in ageing of the population and the life expectancy after retirement: A comparative country-based analysis.

作者信息

Izekenova Assel K, Kumar Ainur B, Abikulova Akmaral K, Izekenova Aigulsum K

机构信息

Department of Economics, Suleyman Demirel University, Almaty, Kazakhstan.

Department of International Healthcare, Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan.

出版信息

J Res Med Sci. 2015 Mar;20(3):250-2.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

During the 20(th) century, the share of elderly in the total population of the Earth has increased steadily. It is expected that this trend will continue in the 21(st) century. In 1950, the elderly (persons aged 60 years and older) were 8% of the world population; in 2000, is already 10%; and in 2050, according to United Nations projections, the proportion will reach 21%. This research on Kazakhstan provides demographic analysis from 1989 to 2012 and presents the main features of population' ageing through comparative analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used information-analytical, content-analysis, mathematical treatment and comparative analysis of statistical data on demographic status in Kazakhstan and some other countries of the world (UK, USA, Turkey, Russia) over the 1989-2012.

RESULTS

Age dependency ratio of the Russian federation - >1.7 times, in the USA-up to 1.9 times and the UK has dependency ratio higher than 2.5 times of similar indicators in Kazakhstan in 2010.

CONCLUSION

Life expectancy of the elderly population KZ after 65 years in 2010 was only 13.8 years, which is 6-9 years inferior to European and U.S. indices. Thus, increasing the retirement age is inappropriate for the current period.

摘要

背景

在20世纪,地球上老年人口在总人口中的占比稳步上升。预计这一趋势在21世纪仍将持续。1950年,老年人(60岁及以上)占世界人口的8%;2000年,这一比例已达10%;而到2050年,根据联合国预测,这一比例将达到21%。这项关于哈萨克斯坦的研究提供了1989年至2012年的人口分析,并通过比较分析呈现了人口老龄化的主要特征。

材料与方法

我们对1989 - 2012年哈萨克斯坦及世界其他一些国家(英国、美国、土耳其、俄罗斯)的人口统计数据进行了信息分析、内容分析、数学处理和比较分析。

结果

2010年,俄罗斯联邦的年龄抚养比是哈萨克斯坦的1.7倍多,美国高达1.9倍,英国的抚养比高于哈萨克斯坦类似指标的2.5倍。

结论

2010年,哈萨克斯坦65岁及以上老年人口的预期寿命仅为13.8岁,比欧洲和美国的指标低6至9岁。因此,在当前时期提高退休年龄是不合适的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7a8/4468229/31d18520004e/JRMS-20-250-g002.jpg

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