Wu Jiansheng, Zhu Jie, Li Weifeng, Xu Duo, Liu Jianzheng
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, 100000, China.
The Key Laboratory for Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, 518000, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2017 Apr;24(11):10695-10707. doi: 10.1007/s11356-017-8673-6. Epub 2017 Mar 11.
Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM) has been associated with mortality, but the extent of the adverse impacts differs across various regions. A quantitative estimation of health effects attributed to PM in China is urgently required, particularly because it has the largest population and high air pollution levels. Based on the remote sensing-derived PM and grid population data, we estimated the acute health effects of PM in China using an exposure-response function. The results suggest the following: (1) The proportion of the population exposed to high PM concentrations (>35 μg/m) increased consistently from 2000 to 2011, and the population exposed to concentrations above the threshold defined by World Health Organization (WHO) (>10 μg/m) rose from 1,191,191,943 to 1,290,562,965. (2) The number of deaths associated with PM exposure increased steadily from 107,608 in 2000 to 173,560 in 2010, with larger numbers in the eastern region. (3) PM health effects decreased in three pollution control scenarios estimated for 2017, i.e., the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) scenario, the APPCAP under WHO IT-1 scenario (35 μg/m), and the APPCAP under WHO IT-3 scenario (15 μg/m), which indicates that pollution control can effectively reduce PM effects on mortality.
暴露于细颗粒物（PM）与死亡率相关，但不同地区的不利影响程度有所不同。迫切需要对中国PM所致的健康影响进行定量评估，特别是因为中国人口最多且空气污染水平较高。基于遥感得出的PM数据和网格人口数据，我们使用暴露-反应函数估算了中国PM的急性健康影响。结果表明：（1）2000年至2011年期间，暴露于高PM浓度（>35μg/m）的人口比例持续增加，暴露于世界卫生组织（WHO）定义阈值（>10μg/m）以上浓度的人口从1,191,191,943增加到1,290,562,965。（2）与PM暴露相关的死亡人数从2000年的107,608稳步增加到2010年的173,560，东部地区的死亡人数更多。（3）在针对2017年估计的三种污染控制情景下，即《大气污染防治行动计划》（APPCAP）情景、WHO IT-1情景（35μg/m）下的APPCAP以及WHO IT-3情景（15μg/m）下的APPCAP，PM对健康的影响有所降低，这表明污染控制可以有效降低PM对死亡率的影响。
