Lee Hanl, Lao Angelyn
Mathematics & Statistics Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, 0922 Manila, Philippines.
Mathematical & Statistical Modeling Research Unit, Center for Natural Sciences and Environmental Research, 2401 Taft Avenue, 0922 Manila, Philippines.
Infect Dis Model. 2018 Mar 16;3:35-59. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2018.03.004. eCollection 2018.
Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI) H5N6 in the Philippines (particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija) in August 2017, there has been an increase in the need to cull the domestic birds to control the spread of the infection. However, this control method poses a negative impact on the poultry industry. In addition, the pathogenicity and transmissibility of the H5N6 in both the birds and the humans remain largely unknown which call for the necessity to develop more strategic control methods for the virus. In this study, we constructed a mathematical model for the bilinear and half-saturated incidence to compare their corresponding effect on transmission dynamics of H5N6. The simulations of half-saturated incidence model were similar to what occurred during the H5N6 outbreak (2017) in the Philippines. Instead of culling the birds, we implemented other control strategies such as non-medicinal (personal protection and poultry isolation) and medicinal (poultry vaccination) ways to prevent, reduce, and control the rate of the H5N6 virus transmission. Among the proposed control strategies, we have shown that the poultry isolation strategy is still the most effective in reducing the infected birds.
由于2017年8月菲律宾（特别是邦板牙省和新怡诗夏省）爆发高致病性甲型禽流感（HPAI）H5N6，为控制感染传播而扑杀家禽的需求有所增加。然而，这种控制方法对家禽业产生了负面影响。此外，H5N6在禽类和人类中的致病性和传播性在很大程度上仍然未知，这就需要开发更具战略性的病毒控制方法。在本研究中，我们构建了双线性和半饱和发生率的数学模型，以比较它们对H5N6传播动力学的相应影响。半饱和发生率模型的模拟结果与2017年菲律宾H5N6疫情期间的情况相似。我们没有扑杀禽类，而是实施了其他控制策略，如非药物（个人防护和家禽隔离）和药物（家禽疫苗接种）方法，以预防、减少和控制H5N6病毒的传播率。在所提出的控制策略中，我们已经表明，家禽隔离策略在减少感染禽类方面仍然是最有效的。
