Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Research Center for Health Sciences, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2018 Dec;8(1-2):29-33. doi: 10.2991/j.jegh.2018.08.100.
This study aimed to predict seasonal influenza activity and detection of influenza outbreaks. Data of all registered cases ( = 53,526) of influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) from sentinel sites of healthcare centers in Iran were obtained from the FluNet web-based tool, World Health Organization (WHO), from 2010 to 2015. The status of the ILI activity was obtained from the FluNet and considered as the gold standard of the seasonal activity of influenza during the study period. The cumulative sum (CUSUM) as an outbreak detection method was used to predict the seasonal activity of influenza. Also, time series similarity between the ILI trend and CUSUM was assessed using the cross-correlogram. Of 7684 (14%) positive cases of influenza, about 71% were type A virus and 28% were type B virus. The majority of the outbreaks occurred in winter and autumn. Results of the cross-correlogram showed that there was a considerable similarity between time series graphs of the ILI cases and CUSUM values. However, the CUSUM algorithm did not have a good performance in the timely detection of influenza activity. Despite a considerable similarity between time series of the ILI cases and CUSUM algorithm in weekly lag, the seasonal activity of influenza in Iran could not be predicted by the CUSUM algorithm.
本研究旨在预测季节性流感活动并检测流感爆发。我们从 2010 年至 2015 年从世界卫生组织（WHO）的 FluNet 网络工具中获取了伊朗医疗中心监测点登记的所有流感样疾病（ILI）病例（=53526）的数据。ILI 活动状态从 FluNet 获取，并被视为研究期间流感季节性活动的金标准。累积和（CUSUM）作为一种爆发检测方法，用于预测流感的季节性活动。此外，使用交叉相关图评估 ILI 趋势和 CUSUM 之间的时间序列相似性。在 7684 例（14%）阳性流感病例中，约 71%为 A 型病毒，28%为 B 型病毒。大多数暴发发生在冬季和秋季。交叉相关图的结果表明，ILI 病例和 CUSUM 值的时间序列图之间存在相当大的相似性。然而，CUSUM 算法在及时检测流感活动方面表现不佳。尽管 ILI 病例和 CUSUM 算法的时间序列在每周滞后方面具有相当大的相似性，但 CUSUM 算法无法预测伊朗的流感季节性活动。
