肺结核报告的时空模式和生态因素：中国广西的空间面板数据分析。
Spatiotemporal patterns and ecological factors of tuberculosis notification: A spatial panel data analysis in Guangxi, China.
机构信息
Department of Tuberculosis Control, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanning, Guangxi, China.
Epidemiology Unit, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla, Thailand.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2019 May 2;14(5):e0212051. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212051. eCollection 2019.
BACKGROUND
Guangxi is one of the provinces having the highest notification rate of tuberculosis in China. However, spatial and temporal patterns and the association between environmental diversity and tuberculosis notification are still unclear.
OBJECTIVE
To detect the spatiotemporal pattern of tuberculosis notification rates from 2010 to 2016 and its potential association with ecological environmental factors in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, China.
METHODS
We performed a spatiotemporal analysis with prediction using time series analysis, Moran's I global and local spatial autocorrelation statistics, and space-time scan statistics to detect temporal and spatial clusters of tuberculosis notifications in Guangxi between 2010 and 2016. Spatial panel models were employed to identify potential associating factors.
RESULTS
The number of reported cases peaked in spring and summer and decreased in autumn and winter. The predicted number of reported cases was 49,946 in 2017. Moran's I global statistics were greater than 0 (0.363-0.536) during the study period. The most significant hot spots were mainly located in the central area. The eastern area exhibited a low-low relation. By the space-time scanning, the clusters identified were similar to those of the local autocorrelation statistics, and were clustered toward the early part of 2016. Duration of sunshine, per capita gross domestic product, the treatment success rate of tuberculosis and participation rate of the new cooperative medical care insurance scheme in rural areas had a significant negative association with tuberculosis notification rates.
CONCLUSION
The notification rate of tuberculosis in Guangxi remains high, with the highest notification cluster located in the central region. The notification rate is associated with economic level, treatment success rate and participation in the new cooperative medical care insurance scheme.
背景
广西是中国肺结核报告发病率最高的省份之一。然而，其肺结核的时空分布模式及其与环境多样性的关联仍不清楚。
目的
检测 2010 年至 2016 年广西壮族自治区肺结核报告发病率的时空模式及其与生态环境因素的潜在关联。
方法
采用时间序列分析、全局和局部空间自相关统计量 Moran's I 以及时空扫描统计方法，对 2010 年至 2016 年广西壮族自治区肺结核报告发病率的时空聚集进行分析。采用空间面板模型识别潜在的关联因素。
结果
报告病例数在春夏季达到峰值，秋冬季减少。预测 2017 年报告病例数为 49946 例。研究期间，Moran's I 全局统计量大于 0（0.363-0.536）。最显著的热点主要集中在中部地区。东部地区呈低-低相关。时空扫描发现，聚集区与局部自相关统计相似，聚集区向 2016 年初发展。日照时间、人均国内生产总值、肺结核治疗成功率和新型农村合作医疗参合率与肺结核报告发病率呈显著负相关。
结论
广西壮族自治区肺结核报告发病率仍然较高，发病率最高的聚集区位于中部地区。报告发病率与经济水平、治疗成功率和新型农村合作医疗参合率有关。
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