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2000-2016 年美国致命摩托车事故的趋势和模式。

Trends and patterns in fatal US motorcycle crashes, 2000-2016.

机构信息

a Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Wright State University Boonshoft School of Medicine , Fairborn , Ohio.

b Center for Injury Research and Policy, The Research Institute at Nationwide Children's Hospital , Columbus , Ohio.

出版信息

Traffic Inj Prev. 2019;20(6):641-647. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2019.1628224. Epub 2019 Jul 8.

Abstract

To investigate trends of motorcyclist fatalities and identify at-risk populations by motorcyclist demographics and crash characteristics. We used the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database (2000-2016) to track fatality rate trends, which were quantified by using Poisson mixed-effects regression models comparing 2000-2001 and 2007-2008, as well as 2009-2010 and 2015-2016. The overall fatality rate per 100,000 population increased from 2000 to 2016, defined by two trend lines-before and after the economic recession in 2008-2009. The overall fatality rate ratio between 2000-2001 and 2007-2008 was 1.60 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.51-1.70], and between 2009-2010 and 2015-2016 was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02-1.18). Fatality rates increased among all age groups, particularly for motorcyclists aged 60 and older. Those aged 18-29 had the highest fatality rates overall. Age-and-sex standardized state fatality rates were consistently highest in Wyoming, South Dakota, and South Carolina and lowest in Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey. Motorcycle fatality rates increased overall and across all age groups between 2000 and 2016. Fatalities for the oldest riders showed the steadiest increasing trends. Results highlight the continued public health burden of motorcyclist fatalities and, by extension, the importance of improving motorcycle safety.

摘要

为了调查摩托车手死亡趋势,并根据摩托车手的人口统计学和事故特征确定高危人群。我们使用死亡率分析报告系统(FARS)数据库(2000-2016 年)来跟踪死亡率趋势,使用泊松混合效应回归模型对 2000-2001 年和 2007-2008 年以及 2009-2010 年和 2015-2016 年进行比较,从而对死亡率趋势进行量化。每 10 万人的总体死亡率从 2000 年到 2016 年增加,这由 2008-2009 年经济衰退前后的两条趋势线定义。2000-2001 年和 2007-2008 年之间的总体死亡率比值为 1.60[95%置信区间(CI):1.51-1.70],2009-2010 年和 2015-2016 年之间的死亡率比值为 1.09(95%CI:1.02-1.18)。所有年龄段的死亡率都有所增加,特别是 60 岁及以上的摩托车手。18-29 岁的人总体死亡率最高。按年龄和性别标准化的州死亡率在怀俄明州、南达科他州和南卡罗来纳州始终最高,在马萨诸塞州、纽约州和新泽西州最低。2000 年至 2016 年期间,摩托车手的死亡率总体上和在所有年龄段都有所增加。最年长的骑手的死亡人数显示出最稳定的上升趋势。研究结果突出了摩托车手死亡对公共健康的持续负担,进而强调了改善摩托车安全的重要性。

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