关于环境传播病原体的建模。
On modelling environmentally transmitted pathogens.
作者信息
Lanzas Cristina, Davies Kale, Erwin Samantha, Dawson Daniel
机构信息
Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
出版信息
Interface Focus. 2020 Feb 6;10(1):20190056. doi: 10.1098/rsfs.2019.0056. Epub 2019 Dec 13.
Abstract
Many pathogens are able to replicate or survive in abiotic environments. Disease transmission models that include environmental reservoirs and environment-to-host transmission have used a variety of functional forms and modelling frameworks without a clear connection to pathogen ecology or space and time scales. We present a conceptual framework to organize microparasites based on the role that abiotic environments play in their lifecycle. Mean-field and individual-based models for environmental transmission are analysed and compared. We show considerable divergence between both modelling approaches when conditions do not facilitate well mixing and for pathogens with fast dynamics in the environment. We conclude with recommendations for modelling environmentally transmitted pathogens based on the pathogen lifecycle and time and spatial scales of the host-pathogen system under consideration.
摘要
许多病原体能够在非生物环境中复制或存活。包含环境宿主库和环境到宿主传播的疾病传播模型使用了多种函数形式和建模框架，却未与病原体生态学或时空尺度建立明确联系。我们提出了一个概念框架，根据非生物环境在其生命周期中所起的作用来组织微寄生虫。对环境传播的平均场模型和个体基础模型进行了分析和比较。我们发现，当条件不利于充分混合时，以及对于在环境中具有快速动态变化的病原体，这两种建模方法之间存在显著差异。我们根据所考虑的宿主 - 病原体系统的病原体生命周期以及时间和空间尺度，给出了针对环境传播病原体建模的建议。
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