Au Eric H, Francis Anna, Bernier-Jean Amelie, Teixeira-Pinto Armando
School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Centre for Kidney Research, Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Centre for Kidney Research, Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Queensland Children's Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Kidney Int. 2020 May;97(5):877-884. doi: 10.1016/j.kint.2020.02.007. Epub 2020 Mar 6.
Risk prediction models are statistical models that estimate the probability of individuals having a certain disease or clinical outcome based on a range of characteristics, and they can be used in clinical practice to stratify disease severity and characterize the risk of disease or disease prognosis. With technological advancements and the proliferation of clinical and biological data, prediction models are increasingly being developed in many areas of nephrology practice. This article guides the reader through the process of creating a prediction model, including (i) defining the clinical question and type of model, (ii) data collection and data cleaning, (iii) model building and variable selection, (iv) model performance, (v) model validation, (vi) model presentation and reporting, and (vii) impact evaluation. An example of developing a prediction model to predict mortality after intensive care unit admission for patients with end-stage kidney disease is also provided to illustrate the model development process.
风险预测模型是基于一系列特征估计个体患某种疾病或出现特定临床结局概率的统计模型，可用于临床实践以对疾病严重程度进行分层，并描述疾病风险或疾病预后。随着技术进步以及临床和生物数据的激增，预测模型在肾脏病学实践的许多领域中越来越多地被开发出来。本文引导读者了解创建预测模型的过程，包括（i）定义临床问题和模型类型，（ii）数据收集和数据清理，（iii）模型构建和变量选择，（iv）模型性能，（v）模型验证，（vi）模型展示和报告，以及（vii）影响评估。还提供了一个为预测终末期肾病患者重症监护病房入院后死亡率而开发预测模型的示例，以说明模型开发过程。
