Cai Qiliang, Chen Yegang, Zhang Dingrong, Pan Jiancheng, Xie Zunke, Xu Chenjie, Li Shu, Zhang Xinyu, Gao Ying, Hou Jie, Guo Xuemei, Zhou Xiaodong, Zhang Baoshuai, Ma Fei, Zhang Wei, Lin Guiting, Xin Zhongcheng, Niu Yuanjie, Wang Yaogang
Department of Urology, the Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin Institute of Urology, Tianjin 300211, China.
School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300070, China.
Transl Androl Urol. 2020 Apr;9(2):196-209. doi: 10.21037/tau.2020.02.21.
This research aims to identify the current and future trends in the incidence and death rate of prostate cancer and to provide the necessary data support for making relevant health decisions.
This study used the collected data and methodologies to describe the incidence and mortality trends of prostate cancer from 1990 to 2016. Based on the data, this paper projected the future trends in prostate cancer incidence and death rate.
In 2016, prostate cancer cases [1,435,742; 95% uncertainty interval (UI), 1,293,395-1,618,655] were nearly 2.5-fold the number in 1990 (579,457; 95% UI, 521,564-616,107). Deaths increased by 2.0-fold from 191,687 (95% UI, 168,885-209,254) in 1990 to 380,916 (95% UI, 320,808-412,868) in 2016. The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 17.75 (95% UI, 18.91-15.95) in 1990 to 22.12 (95% UI, 19.92-24.91) in 2016, changing 24.62%. The global change of age-standardized death rate (ASDR) has declined slightly, but in some regions it shows a trend of growth. By sociodemographic index (SDI) sub-types, prostate cancer will frequently occur in high SDI countries from 1990 to 2030. Simultaneously, the highest mortality will present in low SDI countries.
Through projecting and analyzing incidence and mortality rate of prostate cancer, from 1990 to 2030, by different ages, regions and SDI sub-types, this result may reveal the relationship between prostate cancer and financial development. At the same time, the result also showed a sufficiently heavy burden of prostate cancer, but the burden varies greatly in each region. The burden is a challenge and will require attention for all levels of society. The current study is beneficial to formulate more specific and efficient policies.
本研究旨在确定前列腺癌发病率和死亡率的当前及未来趋势，并为做出相关健康决策提供必要的数据支持。
本研究使用收集到的数据和方法来描述1990年至2016年前列腺癌的发病率和死亡率趋势。基于这些数据，本文预测了前列腺癌发病率和死亡率的未来趋势。
2016年，前列腺癌病例数[1,435,742；95%不确定区间（UI），1,293,395 - 1,618,655]几乎是1990年（579,457；95% UI，521,564 - 616,107）的2.5倍。死亡人数从1990年的191,687人（95% UI，168,885 - 209,254）增加到2016年的380,916人（95% UI，320,808 - 412,868），增长了2.0倍。全球年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从1990年的17.75（95% UI，18.91 - 15.95）上升到2016年的22.12（95% UI，19.92 - 24.91），变化了24.62%。全球年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）的变化略有下降，但在一些地区呈现增长趋势。按社会人口学指数（SDI）亚型划分，1990年至2030年前列腺癌将在高SDI国家频繁发生。同时，低SDI国家的死亡率将最高。
通过对1990年至2030年不同年龄、地区和SDI亚型的前列腺癌发病率和死亡率进行预测和分析，该结果可能揭示前列腺癌与经济发展之间的关系。同时，结果还显示前列腺癌负担相当沉重，但各地区负担差异很大。这一负担是一项挑战，需要社会各层面予以关注。当前的研究有助于制定更具体、有效的政策。
