Temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030.

BACKGROUND

This study aims to present the trends of incidence and mortality of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age, gender, geographical region, regional, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and then forecast the future trends to 2030.

METHODS

Data of this study were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), including 195 countries and territories, accounting for 21 regions. Over-time trends from 1990 to 2016 were analyzed by gender, geographical region, age range and SDI. Based on the big data, we forecasted the future trends to 2030 by ARIMA model. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3) and SPSS (version 22.0).

RESULTS

Globally, in 2016, there were 342,100 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 330,759-349,934] incident cases of kidney cancer and the number of deaths were 131,800 (127,335-136,185). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and death rate (ASDR) were 4.97 (4.81-5.09) per 100,000 and 2.00 (1.93-2.06) per 100,000, respectively. Globally, the estimated risk of kidney cancer for male within the age of 30 and 70 is around 0.79% compared to 0.41% for female. In other words, the probability of developing kidney cancer was generally higher in male than in female. By 2030, incidence of kidney cancer in both sexes are projected to increase substantially in high SDI, followed by middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries. High SDI and low SDI countries will also have increased mortality rates of kidney cancers. Globally, the trends in deaths due to kidney cancer will remain stable.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and death rate of kidney cancer are highly variable among SDI countries and regions but have increased uniformly from 1990 to 2016. By 2030, the future incidence of kidney cancer will grow continuously especially in high SDI countries, middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries.