Cai Qiliang, Chen Yegang, Qi Xingdi, Zhang Dingrong, Pan Jiancheng, Xie Zunke, Xu Chenjie, Li Shu, Zhang Xinyu, Gao Ying, Hou Jie, Guo Xuemei, Zhou Xiaodong, Zhang Baoshuai, Ma Fei, Zhang Wei, Lin Guiting, Xin Zhongcheng, Niu Yuanjie, Wang Yaogang
Department of Urology, the Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin Institute of Urology, Tianjin 300211, China.
School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300070, China.
Transl Androl Urol. 2020 Apr;9(2):166-181. doi: 10.21037/tau.2020.02.23.
This study aims to present the trends of incidence and mortality of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age, gender, geographical region, regional, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and then forecast the future trends to 2030.
Data of this study were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), including 195 countries and territories, accounting for 21 regions. Over-time trends from 1990 to 2016 were analyzed by gender, geographical region, age range and SDI. Based on the big data, we forecasted the future trends to 2030 by ARIMA model. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3) and SPSS (version 22.0).
Globally, in 2016, there were 342,100 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 330,759-349,934] incident cases of kidney cancer and the number of deaths were 131,800 (127,335-136,185). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and death rate (ASDR) were 4.97 (4.81-5.09) per 100,000 and 2.00 (1.93-2.06) per 100,000, respectively. Globally, the estimated risk of kidney cancer for male within the age of 30 and 70 is around 0.79% compared to 0.41% for female. In other words, the probability of developing kidney cancer was generally higher in male than in female. By 2030, incidence of kidney cancer in both sexes are projected to increase substantially in high SDI, followed by middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries. High SDI and low SDI countries will also have increased mortality rates of kidney cancers. Globally, the trends in deaths due to kidney cancer will remain stable.
The incidence and death rate of kidney cancer are highly variable among SDI countries and regions but have increased uniformly from 1990 to 2016. By 2030, the future incidence of kidney cancer will grow continuously especially in high SDI countries, middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries.
本研究旨在呈现1990年至2016年期间肾癌发病率和死亡率按年龄、性别、地理区域、地区及社会人口学指数（SDI）的变化趋势，并预测至2030年的未来趋势。
本研究数据取自全球疾病负担研究（GBD），涵盖195个国家和地区，共21个区域。分析了1990年至2016年按性别、地理区域、年龄范围和SDI的随时间变化趋势。基于大数据，采用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测至2030年的未来趋势。所有数据均使用R软件（x64版本3.5.1）、SAS（9.3版本）和SPSS（22.0版本）进行分析。
全球范围内，2016年肾癌新发病例数为342,100例[95%不确定区间（UI），330,759 - 349,934]，死亡病例数为131,800例（127,335 - 136,185）。年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和死亡率（ASDR）分别为每10万人4.97例（4.81 - 5.09）和每10万人2.00例（1.93 - 2.06）。全球范围内，30至70岁男性患肾癌的估计风险约为0.79%，而女性为0.41%。也就是说，男性患肾癌的概率总体上高于女性。到2030年，高SDI国家的男女肾癌发病率预计将大幅上升，其次是中SDI、低中SDI和低SDI国家。高SDI和低SDI国家的肾癌死亡率也将上升。全球范围内，肾癌死亡趋势将保持稳定。
肾癌的发病率和死亡率在不同SDI国家和地区差异很大，但从1990年到2016年呈一致上升趋势。到2030年，尤其是在高SDI国家、中SDI、低中SDI和低SDI国家，肾癌的未来发病率将持续增长。
