澳大利亚新南威尔士州 COVID-19 疫情期间的气候作用。
The role of climate during the COVID-19 epidemic in New South Wales, Australia.
机构信息
Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, Australia.
School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
出版信息
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2020 Nov;67(6):2313-2317. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13631. Epub 2020 Jun 1.
Abstract
Previous research has identified a relationship between climate and occurrence of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV cases, information that can be used to reduce the risk of infection. Using COVID-19 notification and postcode data from New South Wales, Australia during the exponential phase of the epidemic in 2020, we used time series analysis to investigate the relationship between 749 cases of locally acquired COVID-19 and daily rainfall, 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. temperature, and 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. relative humidity. Lower 9 a.m. relative humidity (but not rainfall or temperature) was associated with increased case occurrence; a reduction in relative humidity of 1% was predicted to be associated with an increase of COVID-19 cases by 6.11%. During periods of low relative humidity, the public health system should anticipate an increased number of COVID-19 cases.
摘要
先前的研究已经确定了气候与 SARS-CoV 和 MERS-CoV 病例发生之间的关系，这些信息可用于降低感染风险。本研究利用澳大利亚新南威尔士州 2020 年疫情指数增长阶段的 COVID-19 通知和邮政编码数据，采用时间序列分析方法，调查了 749 例本地获得性 COVID-19 病例与每日降雨量、上午 9 点和下午 3 点的温度以及上午 9 点和下午 3 点的相对湿度之间的关系。较低的上午 9 点相对湿度（而非降雨量或温度）与病例发生增加有关；相对湿度降低 1%，预计 COVID-19 病例将增加 6.11%。在相对湿度较低的时期，公共卫生系统应预计 COVID-19 病例会增加。
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