Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Int J Epidemiol. 2020 Aug 1;49(4):1096-1105. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyaa106.
Hong Kong (HK) is a densely populated city near the epicentre of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Stringent border control together with aggressive case finding, contact tracing, social distancing and quarantine measures were implemented to halt the importation and spread of the virus.
We performed an epidemiological study using government information covering the first 100 confirmed cases to examine the epidemic curve, incidence, clusters, reproduction number (Rt), incubation period and time to containment.
A total of 93 of the 100 cases were HK residents (6 infected in Mainland China, 10 on the Diamond Princess Cruise). Seven were visitors infected in Mainland China before entering HK. The majority (76%) were aged ≥45 years, and the incidence increased with age (P < 0.001). Escalation of border control measures correlated with a decrease in the proportion (62.5% to 0%) of cases imported from Mainland China, and a reduction in Rt (1.07 to 0.75). The median incubation period was 4.2 days [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.0-4.5; 5th and 95th percentiles: 1.3 and 14.0). Most clusters with identifiable epidemiological links were households involving 2-4 people. Three medium-spreading events were identified: two from New Year gatherings (6-11 people), and another from environmental contamination of a worship hall (12 people). Despite intensified contact tracing, containment was delayed in 78.9% of cases (mean = 5.96 days, range = 0-24 days). An unusual transmission in a multi-storey building via faulty toilet plumbing was suspected with >100 residents evacuated overnight. Our analysis indicated that faulty plumbing was unlikely to be the source of this transmission.
Timely stringent containment policies minimized the importation and transmission of COVID-19 in HK.
香港(HK)是位于冠状病毒病 2019(COVID-19)爆发震中附近的人口稠密城市。实施了严格的边境管制以及积极的病例发现、接触者追踪、社交距离和检疫措施,以阻止病毒的输入和传播。
我们使用政府信息进行了一项流行病学研究,涵盖了前 100 例确诊病例,以检查疫情曲线、发病率、聚集、繁殖数(Rt)、潜伏期和控制时间。
100 例病例中共有 93 例为香港居民(6 例感染于中国大陆,10 例在钻石公主号游轮上)。7 例为入境香港前在中国大陆感染的游客。大多数(76%)年龄≥45 岁,发病率随年龄增长而增加(P<0.001)。边境管制措施的升级与从中国大陆输入的病例比例(从 62.5%降至 0%)和 Rt 下降(从 1.07 降至 0.75)相关。潜伏期中位数为 4.2 天[95%置信区间(CI),4.0-4.5;5 分位数和 95 分位数:1.3 和 14.0)。大多数具有可识别流行病学联系的聚集是涉及 2-4 人的家庭。发现了三个中度传播事件:两个是新年聚会(6-11 人),另一个是礼拜堂环境污染(12 人)。尽管加强了接触者追踪,但 78.9%的病例(平均=5.96 天,范围=0-24 天)的控制被延迟。一栋多层建筑中因马桶管道故障而怀疑发生了异常传播,超过 100 名居民连夜被疏散。我们的分析表明,马桶管道故障不太可能是此次传播的源头。
及时实施严格的控制政策最大限度地减少了 COVID-19 在香港的输入和传播。