Boretti Alberto
Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, Al Khobar, Saudi Arabia.
GeoJournal. 2022;87(2):787-814. doi: 10.1007/s10708-020-10280-7. Epub 2020 Aug 25.
Population growth, even if coupled to economic growth, and resources, were already on a collision course, especially in Africa. The 2019 United Nations World Water Development Report provided a dramatic status of world water, however without questioning the main drivers of an imminent water crisis, that were unbounded, unequal, economic, and population growth, within the context of reducing resources in a finite world. Despite the report was a small step forward in awareness, still, it was not proposing satisfactory remedies. With business-as-usual, without acting on the drivers of water scarcity, regional water crises were inevitable in the next 3 decades, starting from Africa. Constrained by political, financial, and energy burdens, the technological improvements that have helped humanity to deal with the increased demand for water, food, and energy over the last 70 years, were likely not enough to avoid the water crisis. On top of forecast is the Covid19 pandemic. Coronavirus cases are (August 4, 2020) 18,446,065 and fatalities are 697,202 worldwide, and still growing. The containment measures enforced for Covid19 infection following the examples in the United Kingdom have already produced significant damage to the world economy. This will limit social expenditures in general, and the expenditures for the water issue in particular. The water crisis will consequently become worse in the next months, with consequences still difficult to predict. This will be true especially for Africa, where the main problem has always been poverty. There is the opportunity of significant health, food, and water crisis, especially in Africa. While the concepts of washing hands and social distancing that are difficult to apply haven't produce so far major issues with the Covid19 outbreak in Africa, borders closure, restrictions on movement, and more poverty will translate in a lack of food and water potentially much more worrying than the virus spreading.
人口增长,即便与经济增长及资源相挂钩,已然走上了一条冲突之路,尤其是在非洲。《2019年联合国世界水资源开发报告》呈现了世界水资源的严峻现状,然而却未对迫在眉睫的水危机的主要驱动因素提出质疑,这些因素包括在资源有限的世界中无节制、不平等的经济和人口增长。尽管该报告在提高认知方面向前迈出了一小步,但它仍未提出令人满意的补救措施。照此情形发展下去,若不采取行动应对水资源短缺的驱动因素,未来30年内从非洲开始,区域水危机将不可避免。受政治、财政和能源负担的制约,过去70年里帮助人类应对水、食物和能源需求增长的技术进步,可能不足以避免水危机。更糟糕的是新冠疫情。截至2020年8月4日,全球新冠病毒感染病例达18446065例,死亡697202例,且仍在增加。效仿英国采取的新冠病毒感染防控措施已经给世界经济造成了重大损害。这将总体上限制社会支出,尤其是与水问题相关的支出。因此,未来几个月水危机将加剧,其后果仍难以预测。这对非洲来说尤其如此,非洲一直以来的主要问题就是贫困。非洲极有可能出现严重的健康、食物和水危机。虽然勤洗手和保持社交距离等理念在非洲难以实施,且到目前为止尚未给新冠疫情带来重大问题,但边境关闭、行动限制以及更多的贫困将导致食物和水短缺,这可能比病毒传播更令人担忧。