Rahman Mizanur, Islam Mahmuda, Shimanto Mehedi Hasan, Ferdous Jannatul, Rahman Abdullah Al-Nur Shanto, Sagor Pabitra Singha, Chowdhury Tahasina
Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, 3114 Bangladesh.
Environ Dev Sustain. 2021;23(6):9352-9366. doi: 10.1007/s10668-020-01028-x. Epub 2020 Oct 6.
We performed a global analysis with data from 149 countries to test whether temperature can explain the spatial variability of the spread rate and mortality of COVID-19 at the global scale. We performed partial correlation analysis and linear mixed effect modelling to evaluate the association of the spread rate and motility of COVID-19 with maximum, minimum, average temperatures and diurnal temperature variation (difference between daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperature) and other environmental and socio-economic parameters. After controlling the effect of the duration since the first positive case, partial correlation analysis revealed that temperature was not related with the spatial variability of the spread rate of COVID-19 at the global scale. Mortality was negatively related with temperature in the countries with high-income economies. In contrast, diurnal temperature variation was significantly and positively correlated with mortality in the low- and middle-income countries. Taking the country heterogeneity into account, mixed effect modelling revealed that inclusion of temperature as a fixed factor in the model significantly improved model skill predicting mortality in the low- and middle-income countries. Our analysis suggests that warm climate may reduce the mortality rate in high-income economies, but in low- and middle-income countries, high diurnal temperature variation may increase the mortality risk.
我们利用来自149个国家的数据进行了一项全球分析，以检验温度是否能够在全球范围内解释新冠病毒传播率和死亡率的空间变异性。我们进行了偏相关分析和线性混合效应建模，以评估新冠病毒的传播率和致死率与最高温度、最低温度、平均温度以及昼夜温差（白天最高温度与夜间最低温度之差）和其他环境及社会经济参数之间的关联。在控制了首例确诊病例以来的持续时间的影响后，偏相关分析表明，在全球范围内，温度与新冠病毒传播率的空间变异性无关。在高收入经济体国家，死亡率与温度呈负相关。相反，在低收入和中等收入国家，昼夜温差与死亡率呈显著正相关。考虑到国家的异质性，混合效应建模显示，在模型中纳入温度作为固定因子可显著提高对低收入和中等收入国家死亡率的预测能力。我们的分析表明，温暖的气候可能会降低高收入经济体国家的死亡率，但在低收入和中等收入国家，较大的昼夜温差可能会增加死亡风险。
