Shrestha Nistha, Shad Muhammad Yousaf, Ulvi Osman, Khan Modasser Hossain, Karamehic-Muratovic Ajlina, Nguyen Uyen-Sa D T, Baghbanzadeh Mahdi, Wardrup Robert, Aghamohammadi Nasrin, Cervantes Diana, Nahiduzzaman Kh Md, Zaki Rafdzah Ahmad, Haque Ubydul
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX, USA.
Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
One Health. 2020 Dec 20;11:100180. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100180. Epub 2020 Oct 13.
Globalization has altered the way we live and earn a livelihood. Consequently, trade and travel have been recognized as significant determinants of the spread of disease. Additionally, the rise in urbanization and the closer integration of the world economy have facilitated global interconnectedness. Therefore, globalization has emerged as an essential mechanism of disease transmission. This paper aims to examine the potential impact of COVID-19 on globalization and global health in terms of mobility, trade, travel, and countries most impacted. The effect of globalization were operationalized in terms of mobility, economy, and healthcare systems. The mobility of individuals and its magnitude was assessed using airline and seaport trade data and travel information. The economic impact was measured based on the workforce, event cancellations, food and agriculture, academic institutions, and supply chain. The healthcare capacity was assessed by considering healthcare system indicators and preparedness of countries. Utilizing a technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), we calculated a pandemic vulnerability index (PVI) by creating a quantitative measure of the potential global health. The pandemic has placed an unprecedented burden on the world economy, healthcare, and globalization through travel, events cancellation, employment workforce, food chain, academia, and healthcare capacity. Based on PVI results, certain countries were more vulnerable than others. In Africa, more vulnerable countries included South Africa and Egypt; in Europe, they were Russia, Germany, and Italy; in Asia and Oceania, they were India, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey; and for the Americas, they were Brazil, USA, Chile, Mexico, and Peru. The impact on mobility, economy, and healthcare systems has only started to manifest. The findings of this study may help in the planning and implementation of strategies at the country level to help ease this emerging burden.
全球化改变了我们的生活和谋生方式。因此,贸易和旅行已被视为疾病传播的重要决定因素。此外,城市化的兴起以及世界经济的更紧密融合促进了全球互联互通。所以,全球化已成为疾病传播的一个重要机制。本文旨在从流动性、贸易、旅行以及受影响最严重的国家等方面,研究新冠疫情对全球化和全球健康的潜在影响。全球化的影响在流动性、经济和医疗体系方面得以体现。利用航空和海港贸易数据以及旅行信息评估个人的流动性及其规模。基于劳动力、活动取消、食品和农业、学术机构以及供应链来衡量经济影响。通过考虑医疗体系指标和各国的准备情况来评估医疗能力。我们运用逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS),通过创建对潜在全球健康的定量衡量指标,计算出大流行脆弱性指数(PVI)。这场大流行通过旅行、活动取消、就业劳动力、食物链、学术界和医疗能力,给世界经济、医疗和全球化带来了前所未有的负担。根据PVI结果,某些国家比其他国家更脆弱。在非洲,较脆弱的国家包括南非和埃及;在欧洲,是俄罗斯、德国和意大利;在亚洲和大洋洲,是印度、伊朗、巴基斯坦、沙特阿拉伯和土耳其;在美洲,是巴西、美国、智利、墨西哥和秘鲁。对流动性、经济和医疗体系的影响才刚刚开始显现。本研究结果可能有助于在国家层面规划和实施战略,以帮助减轻这一新兴负担。