Semenova Yuliya, Pivina Lyudmila, Khismetova Zaituna, Auyezova Ardak, Nurbakyt Ardak, Kauysheva Almagul, Ospanova Dinara, Kuziyeva Gulmira, Kushkarova Altynshash, Ivankov Alexandr, Glushkova Natalya
Department of Neurology, Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology, Semey Medical University, Semey, Kazakhstan.
Department of Internal Medicine, Semey Medical University, Semey, Kazakhstan.
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020 Nov;53(6):387-396. doi: 10.3961/jpmph.20.395. Epub 2020 Oct 5.
The lack of advance planning in a public health emergency can lead to wasted resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available.
We constructed a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The World Health Organization's COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the next 12 weeks.
Over the forecast period, there will be 104 713.7 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34 904.5 hospital admissions due to critical disease. This will require 47 247.7 beds for severe disease and 1929.9 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. There will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, Republic of Kazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways to redistribute resources effectively.
Republic of Kazakhstan will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting COVID-19 in a number of inter-related directions.
突发公共卫生事件中缺乏预先规划可能导致资源浪费和意外的生命损失。本研究旨在预测哈萨克斯坦共和国2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情扩大后对医疗资源的需求，根据不断发展的疫情形势和现有资源数据，重点关注医院床位、设备和专业医护人员。
我们通过经典的易感-暴露-感染-康复（SEIR）方法构建了疫情情景预测模型。使用世界卫生组织的COVID-19基本物资预测工具评估未来12周所需的医疗资源。
在预测期内，因重症将有104713.7例住院病例，因危重症将有34904.5例住院病例。在COVID-19疫情高峰期，这将需要47247.7张重症床位和1929.9张危重症床位。对各类医护人员以及诊断和治疗设备也将有很高的需求。因此，哈萨克斯坦共和国面临着迅速增加可用医疗资源和/或找到有效重新分配资源方法的需求。
哈萨克斯坦共和国将能够通过制定并遵循一系列相互关联的针对COVID-19的一致战略，降低其人口中的感染率和死亡率。
