Vancutsem C, Achard F, Pekel J-F, Vieilledent G, Carboni S, Simonetti D, Gallego J, Aragão L E O C, Nasi R
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Via E. Fermi 2749-TP 261, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
CIRAD, UMR AMAP, F-34398 Montpellier, France.
Sci Adv. 2021 Mar 5;7(10). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abe1603. Print 2021 Mar.
Accurate characterization of tropical moist forest changes is needed to support conservation policies and to quantify their contribution to global carbon fluxes more effectively. We document, at pantropical scale, the extent and changes (degradation, deforestation, and recovery) of these forests over the past three decades. We estimate that 17% of tropical moist forests have disappeared since 1990 with a remaining area of 1071 million hectares in 2019, from which 10% are degraded. Our study underlines the importance of the degradation process in these ecosystems, in particular, as a precursor of deforestation, and in the recent increase in tropical moist forest disturbances (natural and anthropogenic degradation or deforestation). Without a reduction of the present disturbance rates, undisturbed forests will disappear entirely in large tropical humid regions by 2050. Our study suggests that reinforcing actions are needed to prevent the initial degradation that leads to forest clearance in 45% of the cases.
准确描述热带湿润森林的变化对于支持保护政策以及更有效地量化其对全球碳通量的贡献至关重要。我们在泛热带尺度上记录了过去三十年这些森林的范围和变化（退化、森林砍伐和恢复）。我们估计，自1990年以来，17%的热带湿润森林已经消失，2019年剩余面积为10.71亿公顷，其中10%已退化。我们的研究强调了这些生态系统中退化过程的重要性，特别是作为森林砍伐的前兆，以及近期热带湿润森林干扰（自然和人为退化或森林砍伐）的增加。如果不降低目前的干扰率，到2050年，未受干扰的森林将在大片热带湿润地区完全消失。我们的研究表明，需要加强行动以防止导致45%的森林被砍伐的初始退化。
