School of Economics and Management, Northwest Agricultural and Forestry University, Xianyang, China.
School of Public Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, China.
BMC Public Health. 2021 Mar 17;21(1):529. doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-10605-2.
This study applied the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.
The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China's National Health Commission.
This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that the combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media were important routes affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then controlling population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration.
This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.
本研究应用易感-暴露-感染-移除（SEIR）模型分析和模拟 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在中国的传播机制。
将人口迁移嵌入 SEIR 模型中，以模拟和分析流入人口数量对确诊病例数量的影响。基于数值模拟，本研究利用统计数据对其理论推论进行了实证验证，并讨论了如何考虑人口迁移变量来提高疫情防控的效果。从中国国家卫生健康委员会报告的与疫情相关的数据中获得了各省份感染人数的统计数据。
本研究从人口迁移变量的角度探讨了应如何进行疫情防控。研究发现，易感人群、感染人群和传播媒介的结合是影响感染人数的重要途径，而湖北相关感染人群的迁移在促进疫情传播方面发挥了关键作用。疫情防控应关注经济条件优于疫情地区的地区。防控工作应侧重于交通便利、与疫区相邻且人口较多的省份。为了防止疫情传播，应优先阐明从国内感染源出发的人口迁移的目的地和方向，然后在人口迁移后控制人口迁移或人与人之间的接触。
本研究丰富和扩展了人口迁移对 COVID-19 疫情影响的模拟以及中国的实证研究，为未来预防和控制类似的公共卫生紧急情况提供了疫情评估和预警机制。
