Centre for Climate Change & Water Research (C3WR), Suresh Gyan Vihar University, Jaipur, Rajasthan, 302017, India.
Department of Ecology, Environment and Remote Sensing, Government of Jammu and Kashmir, Srinagar, 190018, India.
Risk Anal. 2021 May;41(5):801-813. doi: 10.1111/risa.13724. Epub 2021 Mar 17.
Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a threat to humans and to the socioeconomic systems they have developed since the industrial revolution. Hence, governments and stakeholders call for strategies to help restore normalcy while dealing with this pandemic effectively. Since till now, the disease is yet to have a cure; therefore, only risk-based decision making can help governments achieve a sustainable solution in the long term. To help the decisionmakers explore viable actions, we propose a risk-based assessment framework for analyzing COVID-19 risk to areas, using integrated hazard and vulnerability components associated with this pandemic for effective risk mitigation. The study is carried on a region administrated by Jaipur municipal corporation (JMC), India. Based on the current understanding of this disease, we hypothesized different COVID-19 risk indices (C19Ri) of the wards of JMC such as proximity to hotspots, total population, population density, availability of clean water, and associated land use/land cover, are related with COVID-19 contagion and calculated them in a GIS-based multicriteria risk reduction method. The results showed disparateness in COVID-19 risk areas with a higher risk in north-eastern and south-eastern zone wards within the boundary of JMC. We proposed prioritizing wards under higher risk zones for intelligent decision making regarding COVID-19 risk reduction through appropriate management of resources-related policy consequences. This study aims to serve as a baseline study to be replicated in other parts of the country or world to eradicate the threat of COVID-19 effectively.
从全球范围来看,新冠疫情已经对人类和自工业革命以来人类所建立的社会经济系统构成了威胁。因此,政府和利益相关方呼吁采取策略,在有效应对这一疫情的同时帮助恢复正常生活。由于目前还没有治愈这种疾病的方法,因此只有基于风险的决策才能帮助政府在长期内实现可持续的解决方案。为了帮助决策者探索可行的行动方案,我们提出了一个基于风险的评估框架,用于分析新冠疫情对特定区域的风险,该框架使用与这一流行病相关的综合危害和脆弱性因素,以有效降低风险。这项研究是在印度斋浦尔市政公司(JMC)管理的一个地区进行的。基于对该疾病的现有认识,我们假设 JMC 各行政区不同的新冠疫情风险指数(C19Ri),如与热点地区的接近程度、总人口、人口密度、清洁水供应情况以及相关土地利用/土地覆盖情况,与新冠疫情传播有关,并在基于 GIS 的多标准风险降低方法中对其进行了计算。结果表明,JMC 边界内东北部和东南部行政区的新冠疫情风险存在差异,风险较高。我们建议对高风险区域的行政区进行优先排序,以便通过适当管理与资源相关的政策后果,针对新冠疫情风险降低做出明智的决策。本研究旨在作为国家或全球其他地区开展的基线研究,以有效消除新冠疫情的威胁。