Ashley Wendell Kranjac, PhD, is an Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, Chapman University, Orange, CA. Dinko Kranjac, PhD, is an Assistant Professor, Department of Psychology, University of La Verne, La Verne, CA.
Health Secur. 2021 Jun;19(S1):S27-S33. doi: 10.1089/hs.2020.0236. Epub 2021 May 5.
More than a century of research has shown that sociodemographic conditions affect infectious disease transmission. In the late spring and early summer of 2020, reports of the effects of sociodemographic variables on the spread of COVID-19 were used in the media with minimal scientific proof attached. With new cases of COVID-19 surging in the United States at that time, it became essential to better understand how the spread of COVID-19 was varying across all segments of the population. We used hierarchical exponential growth curve modeling techniques to examine whether community socioeconomic characteristics uniquely influence the incidence of reported COVID-19 cases in the urban built environment. We show that as of July 19, 2020, confirmed coronavirus infections in New York City and surrounding areas-one of the early epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States-were concentrated along demographic and socioeconomic lines. Furthermore, our data provides evidence that after the onset of the pandemic, timely enactment of physical distancing measures such as school closures was essential to limiting the extent of the coronavirus spread in the population. We conclude that in a pandemic, public health authorities must impose physical distancing measures early on as well as consider community-level factors that associate with a greater risk of viral transmission.
一个多世纪的研究表明，社会人口状况会影响传染病的传播。2020 年春末夏初，有关社会人口变量对 COVID-19 传播影响的报告在媒体上出现，但几乎没有科学依据。当时美国 COVID-19 的新病例激增，因此必须更好地了解 COVID-19 在人口的所有群体中的传播情况如何有所不同。我们使用分层指数增长曲线建模技术来研究社区社会经济特征是否会对城市建成环境中报告的 COVID-19 病例的发病率产生独特影响。我们表明，截至 2020 年 7 月 19 日，美国 COVID-19 大流行的早期中心之一纽约市及其周边地区的确诊冠状病毒感染病例集中在人口统计学和社会经济方面。此外，我们的数据提供了证据表明，在大流行发生后，及时采取诸如关闭学校等身体距离措施对于限制病毒在人群中的传播范围至关重要。我们的结论是，在大流行期间，公共卫生当局必须尽早实施身体距离措施，并考虑与病毒传播风险增加相关的社区层面因素。
