International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, D.C., USA.
Nat Commun. 2021 May 10;12(1):2601. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22703-1.
Agricultural production is strongly affected by and a major contributor to climate change. Agriculture and land-use change account for a quarter of total global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture receives around US$600 billion per year worldwide in government support. No rigorous quantification of the impact of this support on GHG emissions has been available. This article helps fill the void. Here, we find that, while over the years the government support has incentivized the development of high-emission farming systems, at present, the support only has a small impact in terms of inducing additional global GHG emissions from agricultural production; partly because support is not systematically biased towards high-emission products, and partly because support generated by trade protection reduces demand for some high-emission products by raising their consumer prices. Substantially reducing GHG emissions from agriculture while safeguarding food security requires a more comprehensive revamping of existing support to agriculture and food consumption.
农业生产受到气候变化的强烈影响，也是气候变化的主要贡献者之一。农业和土地利用变化占温室气体（GHG）总排放量的四分之一。全球范围内，农业每年获得约 6000 亿美元的政府支持。然而，一直缺乏对这种支持对温室气体排放影响的严格量化。本文有助于填补这一空白。我们发现，尽管多年来政府的支持激励了高排放农业系统的发展，但目前，这种支持对农业生产中额外的全球温室气体排放的影响很小；部分原因是支持并非系统地偏向于高排放产品，部分原因是贸易保护措施产生的支持通过提高高排放产品的消费者价格，减少了对这些产品的需求。在保障粮食安全的同时，大幅减少农业温室气体排放，需要对现有的农业和粮食消费支持进行更全面的改革。
