Bel Germà, Gasulla Óscar, Mazaira-Font Ferran A
Universitat de Barcelona.
Public Adm Rev. 2021 Nov-Dec;81(6):1131-1146. doi: 10.1111/puar.13394. Epub 2021 Jun 13.
The COVID-19 pandemic has become an unprecedented health, economic, and social crisis. The present study has built a theoretical model and used it to develop an empirical strategy, analyzing the drivers of policy-response agility during the outbreak. Our empirical results show that national policy responses were delayed, both by government expectations of the healthcare system capacity and by expectations that any hard measures used to manage the crisis would entail severe economic costs. With decision-making based on incomplete information, the agility of national policy responses increased as knowledge increased and uncertainty decreased in relation to the epidemic's evolution and the policy responses of other countries.
新冠疫情已演变成一场前所未有的健康、经济和社会危机。本研究构建了一个理论模型，并运用该模型制定了一种实证策略，分析疫情爆发期间政策应对灵活性的驱动因素。我们的实证结果表明，国家政策应对出现延迟，这既受到政府对医疗系统能力的预期影响，也受到对用于管控危机的任何强硬措施将带来高昂经济成本的预期影响。由于决策基于不完整信息，随着对疫情演变和其他国家政策应对的了解增多以及不确定性降低，国家政策应对的灵活性有所提高。
