Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Public Health. 2023 Apr;217:7-14. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2023.01.012. Epub 2023 Jan 24.
During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the full reopening of the economy typically accelerated viral transmission. This study aims to determine whether policy response could contribute to the dual objective of both reducing the spread of the epidemic and revitalising economic activities.
This is a longitudinal study of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa (BRIICS) from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the same period of 2021.
From a health-economic perspective, this study established a framework to illustrate the following outcomes: suppression-prosperity, outbreak-stagnancy, outbreak-prosperity and suppression-stagnancy scenarios. Multinomial logistic models were used to analyse the associations between policy response with both the pandemic and the economy. The study further examined two subtypes of policy response, stringency/health measures and economic support measures, separately. The probabilities of the different scenarios were estimated.
Economic prosperity and epidemic suppression were significantly associated with policy response. The effects of policy response on health-economic scenarios took the form of inverse U-shapes with the increase in intensity. 'Leptokurtic', 'bimodal' and 'long-tailed' curves demonstrated the estimated possibilities of suppression-prosperity, outbreak-prosperity and suppression-stagnancy scenarios, respectively. In addition, stringency/health policies followed the inverted U-shaped pattern, whereas economic support policies showed a linear pattern.
It was possible to achieve the dual objective of economic growth and epidemic control simultaneously, and the effects of policy response were shaped like an inverse U. These findings provide a new perspective for balancing the economy with public health during the early stages of the pandemic.
在 COVID-19 大流行的早期阶段，经济的全面复苏通常会加速病毒传播。本研究旨在确定政策应对措施是否有助于实现减少疫情传播和重振经济活动的双重目标。
这是一项对经济合作与发展组织（OECD）和巴西、俄罗斯、印度、印度尼西亚、中国和南非（BRIICS）的纵向研究，时间跨度为 2020 年第一季度（Q1）至 2021 年同期。
从健康经济学的角度出发，本研究建立了一个框架来阐述以下结果：抑制-繁荣、爆发-停滞、爆发-繁荣和抑制-停滞情景。使用多项逻辑回归模型分析政策应对与疫情和经济之间的关联。本研究进一步分别分析了政策应对的两种亚型，即严格措施/卫生措施和经济支持措施。估计了不同情景的概率。
经济繁荣和疫情抑制与政策应对显著相关。政策应对对健康经济情景的影响呈倒 U 形，随着强度的增加而变化。“尖峰厚尾”、“双峰”和“长尾”曲线分别代表了抑制-繁荣、爆发-繁荣和抑制-停滞情景的估计可能性。此外，严格措施/卫生政策呈倒 U 形模式，而经济支持政策呈线性模式。
有可能同时实现经济增长和疫情控制的双重目标，政策应对的效果呈倒 U 形。这些发现为在大流行早期阶段平衡经济和公共卫生提供了新的视角。
