Hendi Arun S, Ho Jessica Y
Princeton University, United States.
University of Southern California, United States.
SSM Popul Health. 2021 Sep 4;15:100914. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100914. eCollection 2021 Sep.
Despite the immigrant mortality advantage and the increasing share of the population born abroad, relatively little is known about how immigration has impacted trends in US life expectancy. How immigrants contribute to national life expectancy trends is of increasing interest, particularly in the context of an unprecedented stagnation in American mortality. We find that immigration increases US life expectancy by 1.5 years for men and 1.4 years for women. Over half of these contributions occur at the prime working ages of 25-64. The difference between foreign-born and US-born mortality has grown substantially since 1990, with the ratio of US-born to foreign-born mortality rates nearly doubling by 2017. In that year, foreign-born life expectancy reached 81.4 and 85.7 years for men and women, respectively-7.0 and 6.2 years higher than their US-origin counterparts. These life expectancy levels are remarkable by most standards. Foreign-born male life expectancy exceeds that of Swiss men, the world leaders in male life expectancy. Life expectancy for foreign-born women is close to that of Japanese women, the world leaders in female life expectancy. The widening mortality difference between the US-born and foreign-born populations, coupled with an increase in the share of the population born abroad, has been responsible for much of the increase in national life expectancy in recent years. Between 2007 and 2017, foreign-born men and women were responsible for 44% and 60% of national life expectancy improvements. Between 2010 and 2017, immigrants experienced gains while the US-born experienced declines in life expectancy. Thus, nearly all of the post-2010 mortality stagnation is due to adverse trends among the US-born. Without immigrants and their children, national life expectancy in 2017 would be reduced to its 2003 levels. These findings demonstrate that immigration acts to bolster American life expectancy, with particularly valuable contributions at the prime working ages.
尽管移民群体的死亡率较低，且国外出生人口在美国人口中的占比不断上升，但对于移民如何影响美国预期寿命的趋势，我们了解得相对较少。移民对国民预期寿命趋势的贡献越来越受到关注，尤其是在美国死亡率前所未有的停滞不前的背景下。我们发现，移民使美国男性的预期寿命提高了1.5岁，女性提高了1.4岁。其中超过一半的贡献来自25至64岁的黄金工作年龄段。自1990年以来，外国出生者与美国本土出生者的死亡率差距大幅扩大，到2017年，美国本土出生者与外国出生者的死亡率之比几乎翻了一番。同年，外国出生男性和女性的预期寿命分别达到81.4岁和85.7岁，比美国本土出生的同龄人分别高出7.0岁和6.2岁。按照大多数标准，这些预期寿命水平都相当可观。外国出生男性的预期寿命超过了瑞士男性，瑞士男性在全球男性预期寿命方面处于领先地位。外国出生女性的预期寿命接近日本女性，日本女性在全球女性预期寿命方面处于领先地位。美国本土出生者与外国出生者之间死亡率差距的不断扩大，再加上国外出生人口占比的增加，是近年来国民预期寿命增加的主要原因。在2007年至2017年期间，外国出生的男性和女性对国民预期寿命提高的贡献率分别为44%和60%。在2010年至2017年期间，移民的预期寿命有所提高，而美国本土出生者的预期寿命则有所下降。因此，2010年之后几乎所有的死亡率停滞都归因于美国本土出生者的不利趋势。如果没有移民及其子女，2017年的国民预期寿命将降至2003年的水平。这些发现表明移民有助于提高美国人的预期寿命，在黄金工作年龄段的贡献尤为显著。
