Stable Planet Alliance, USA.
Center for Environmental Politics, University of Washington, USA.
Sci Prog. 2021 Oct;104(4):368504211056290. doi: 10.1177/00368504211056290.
'We have kicked the can down the road once again - but we are running out of road.' - Rachel Kyte, Dean of Fletcher School at Tufts University.We, in our capacities as scientists, economists, governance and policy specialists, are shifting from warnings to guidance for action before there is no more 'road.' The science is clear and irrefutable; humanity is in advanced ecological overshoot. Our overexploitation of resources exceeds ecosystems' capacity to provide them or to absorb our waste. Society has failed to meet clearly stated goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Civilization faces an epochal crossroads, but with potentially much better, wiser outcomes if we act now.What are the concrete and transformative actions by which we can turn away from the abyss? In this paper we forcefully recommend priority actions and resource allocation to avert the worst of the , two of the most pressing symptoms of overshoot, and lead society into a future of greater wellbeing and wisdom. Humanity has begun the social, economic, political and technological initiatives needed for this transformation. Now, massive upscaling and acceleration of these actions and collaborations are essential before irreversible tipping points are crossed in the coming decade. We still can overcome significant societal, political and economic barriers of our own making.Previously, we identified six core areas for urgent global action - energy, pollutants, nature, food systems, population stabilization and economic goals. Here we identify an indicative, systemic and time-limited framework for priority actions for policy, planning and management at multiple scales from household to global. We broadly follow the 'Reduce-Remove-Repair' approach to rapid action. To guide decision makers, planners, managers, and budgeters, we cite some of the many experiments, mechanisms and resources in order to facilitate rapid global adoption of effective solutions.Our biggest challenges are not technical, but social, economic, political and behavioral. To have hope of success, we must accelerate collaborative actions across scales, in different cultures and governance systems, while maintaining adequate social, economic and political stability. Effective and timely actions are still achievable on many, though not all fronts. Such change will mean the difference for billions of children and adults, hundreds of thousands of species, health of many ecosystems, and will determine our common future.
“我们又一次把问题推迟了——但我们的路快没了。”——瑞秋·凯特(Rachel Kyte),塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院院长。我们这些科学家、经济学家、治理和政策专家,正在从发出警告转变为提供行动指导,因为我们已经没有时间了。科学是明确无误的,人类已经严重超出了生态承载能力。我们对资源的过度开发超过了生态系统提供资源或吸收我们废物的能力。社会未能实现联合国气候变化框架公约明确规定的目标。文明正面临着一个划时代的十字路口,但如果我们现在采取行动,就有可能出现更好、更明智的结果。我们可以采取哪些具体的、变革性的行动来避免陷入深渊呢?在本文中,我们强烈建议采取优先行动和资源分配,以避免最糟糕的情况发生,这是过度开发的两个最紧迫的症状之一,并引领社会走向更加幸福和智慧的未来。人类已经开始采取社会、经济、政治和技术方面的举措来实现这一转变。现在,在未来十年内不可逆转的转折点到来之前,大规模扩大这些行动和合作的规模并加速其发展至关重要。我们仍然可以克服自身造成的重大社会、政治和经济障碍。此前,我们确定了六个需要全球紧急行动的核心领域——能源、污染物、自然、粮食系统、人口稳定和经济目标。在这里,我们为政策、规划和管理确定了一个指示性的、系统的和有时限的框架,涵盖了从家庭到全球的多个尺度的优先行动。我们广泛遵循“减少-去除-修复”的快速行动方法。为了指导决策者、规划者、管理者和预算编制者,我们引用了许多实验、机制和资源,以促进有效解决方案在全球范围内的迅速采用。我们最大的挑战不是技术方面的,而是社会、经济、政治和行为方面的。为了有成功的希望,我们必须在不同文化和治理体系中加速跨尺度的合作行动,同时保持足够的社会、经济和政治稳定性。在许多方面,尽管不是所有方面,仍然可以采取有效的、及时的行动。这种变化将对数以亿计的儿童和成年人、数十万种物种、许多生态系统的健康产生影响,并将决定我们的共同未来。