Li Zhiwei, Liu Xiangtong, Liu Mengyang, Wu Zhiyuan, Liu Yue, Li Weiming, Liu Mengmeng, Wang Xiaonan, Gao Bo, Luo Yanxia, Li Xia, Tao Lixin, Wang Wei, Guo Xiuhua
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China.
Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100071, China.
Vaccines (Basel). 2021 Nov 15;9(11):1328. doi: 10.3390/vaccines9111328.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a global pandemic, has caused over 216 million cases and 4.50 million deaths as of 30 August 2021. Vaccines can be regarded as one of the most powerful weapons to eliminate the pandemic, but the impact of vaccines on daily COVID-19 cases and deaths by country is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the correlation between vaccines and daily newly confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in each country worldwide.
Daily data on firstly vaccinated people, fully vaccinated people, new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 were collected from 187 countries. First, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) to analyze the association between daily vaccinated people and daily new cases and deaths of COVID-19. Second, a random effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the global pooled results.
In total, 187 countries and regions were included in the study. During the study period, 1,011,918,763 doses of vaccine were administered, 540,623,907 people received at least one dose of vaccine, and 230,501,824 people received two doses. For the relationship between vaccination and daily increasing cases of COVID-19, the results showed that daily increasing cases of COVID-19 would be reduced by 24.43% [95% CI: 18.89, 29.59] and 7.50% [95% CI: 6.18, 8.80] with 10,000 fully vaccinated people per day and at least one dose of vaccine, respectively. Daily increasing deaths of COVID-19 would be reduced by 13.32% [95% CI: 3.81, 21.89] and 2.02% [95% CI: 0.18, 4.16] with 10,000 fully vaccinated people per day and at least one dose of vaccine, respectively.
These findings showed that vaccination can effectively reduce the new cases and deaths of COVID-19, but vaccines are not distributed fairly worldwide. There is an urgent need to accelerate the speed of vaccination and promote its fair distribution across countries.
2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）是一场全球大流行疾病，截至2021年8月30日，已导致超过2.16亿例感染和450万人死亡。疫苗可被视为消除该大流行的最有力武器之一，但疫苗对各国每日COVID-19病例和死亡的影响尚不清楚。本研究旨在调查全球各国疫苗接种与每日新增COVID-19确诊病例和死亡之间的相关性。
收集了187个国家关于首次接种疫苗者、完全接种疫苗者、COVID-19新增病例和新增死亡的每日数据。首先，我们使用广义相加模型（GAM）分析每日接种疫苗者与每日COVID-19新增病例和死亡之间的关联。其次，进行随机效应荟萃分析以计算全球汇总结果。
本研究共纳入187个国家和地区。在研究期间，共接种了1011918763剂疫苗，540623907人至少接种了一剂疫苗，230501824人接种了两剂疫苗。对于疫苗接种与每日COVID-19新增病例之间的关系，结果显示，每天每有10000名完全接种疫苗者和至少接种一剂疫苗者，COVID-19每日新增病例数将分别减少24.43%[95%置信区间：18.89，29.59]和7.50%[95%置信区间：6.18，8.80]。每天每有10000名完全接种疫苗者和至少接种一剂疫苗者，COVID-19每日新增死亡数将分别减少13.32%[95%置信区间：3.81，21.89]和2.02%[95%置信区间：0.18，4.16]。
这些研究结果表明，接种疫苗可有效减少COVID-19的新增病例和死亡，但疫苗在全球范围内的分配并不公平。迫切需要加快疫苗接种速度，并促进其在各国的公平分配。
