University of Leeds, United Kingdom.
Australian National University, Australia.
Soc Sci Med. 2022 Apr;298:114800. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.114800. Epub 2022 Feb 16.
Despite unprecedented progress in developing COVID-19 vaccines, global vaccination levels needed to reach herd immunity remain a distant target, while new variants keep emerging. Obtaining near universal vaccine uptake relies on understanding and addressing vaccine resistance. Simple questions about vaccine acceptance however ignore that the vaccines being offered vary across countries and even population subgroups, and differ in terms of efficacy and side effects. By using advanced discrete choice models estimated on stated choice data collected in 18 countries/territories across six continents, we show a substantial influence of vaccine characteristics. Uptake increases if more efficacious vaccines (95% vs 60%) are offered (mean across study areas = 3.9%, range of 0.6%-8.1%) or if vaccines offer at least 12 months of protection (mean across study areas = 2.4%, range of 0.2%-5.8%), while an increase in severe side effects (from 0.001% to 0.01%) leads to reduced uptake (mean = -1.3%, range of -0.2% to -3.9%). Additionally, a large share of individuals (mean = 55.2%, range of 28%-75.8%) would delay vaccination by 3 months to obtain a more efficacious (95% vs 60%) vaccine, where this increases further if the low efficacy vaccine has a higher risk (0.01% instead of 0.001%) of severe side effects (mean = 65.9%, range of 41.4%-86.5%). Our work highlights that careful consideration of which vaccines to offer can be beneficial. In support of this, we provide an interactive tool to predict uptake in a country as a function of the vaccines being deployed, and also depending on the levels of infectiousness and severity of circulating variants of COVID-19.
尽管在开发 COVID-19 疫苗方面取得了前所未有的进展，但要实现群体免疫所需的全球疫苗接种率仍遥遥无期，而新的变异株仍在不断出现。实现近乎普遍的疫苗接种率依赖于对疫苗抗性的理解和应对。然而，人们对疫苗接受程度的简单问题忽略了这样一个事实，即所提供的疫苗因国家甚至人口亚组而异，并且在疗效和副作用方面也存在差异。通过使用在六大洲 18 个国家/地区收集的基于陈述选择数据估计的高级离散选择模型，我们表明疫苗特性具有很大的影响力。如果提供更有效的疫苗（95%对 60%）（跨研究区域平均值为 3.9%，范围为 0.6%-8.1%）或提供至少 12 个月保护的疫苗（跨研究区域平均值为 2.4%，范围为 0.2%-5.8%），接种率会增加，而严重副作用的增加（从 0.001%增加到 0.01%）会导致接种率降低（平均值为-1.3%，范围为-0.2%-3.9%）。此外，很大一部分人（平均值为 55.2%，范围为 28%-75.8%）会将接种时间推迟 3 个月，以获得更有效的（95%对 60%）疫苗，如果低疗效疫苗的严重副作用风险更高（0.01%而不是 0.001%），这种情况会进一步增加（平均值为 65.9%，范围为 41.4%-86.5%）。我们的工作强调，仔细考虑提供哪些疫苗是有益的。为此，我们提供了一个交互式工具，可以根据正在部署的疫苗以及 COVID-19 传播变体的传染性和严重程度，预测一个国家的接种率。
