Bhadauria Archana Singh, Pathak Rachana, Chaudhary Manisha
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gorakhpur University, Gorakhpur, U.P, India.
Department of Applied Science and Humanities(Mathematics), Faculty of Engineering & Technology, University of Lucknow, Lucknow, U.P, India.
Infect Dis Model. 2021;6:244-257. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.12.010. Epub 2021 Jan 7.
This research paper aims at studying the impact of lockdown on the dynamics of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan city of China in December 2019. Perceiving the pandemic situation throughout the world, Government of India restricted international passenger traffic through land check post (Liang, 2020) and imposed complete lockdown in the country on 24 March 2020. To study the impact of lockdown on disease dynamics we consider a three-dimensional mathematical model using nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The proposed model has been studied using stability theory of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Basic reproduction ratio is computed and significant parameters responsible to keep basic reproduction ratio less than one are identified. The study reveals that disease vanishes from the system only if complete lockdown is imposed otherwise disease will always persist in the population. However, disease can be kept under control by implementing contact tracing and quarantine measures as well along with lockdown if lockdown is imposed partially.
本研究论文旨在研究封锁对2019年12月在中国武汉市出现的新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）动态的影响。鉴于全球疫情形势，印度政府限制了通过陆地检查站的国际客运交通（梁，2020），并于2020年3月24日在该国实施了全面封锁。为了研究封锁对疾病动态的影响，我们考虑使用非线性常微分方程的三维数学模型。利用非线性常微分方程的稳定性理论对所提出的模型进行了研究。计算了基本再生数，并确定了使基本再生数小于1的重要参数。研究表明，只有实施全面封锁，疾病才会从系统中消失，否则疾病将始终在人群中持续存在。然而，如果部分实施封锁，通过实施接触者追踪和检疫措施以及封锁，可以控制疾病。
