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新冠疫情对中国经济结构的影响:一种投入产出方法。

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's economic structure: An input-output approach.

作者信息

Han Yang

机构信息

School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.

出版信息

Struct Chang Econ Dyn. 2022 Dec;63:181-195. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2022.09.014. Epub 2022 Sep 30.

Abstract

Recognizing the impact of COVID-19 on economic structure is an urgently required task for the post-pandemic era. However, studies have been hampered in undertaking this task by a lack of current data and the use of inappropriate methods. This paper fills the gap in the literature by applying a network analysis method using the newly released input-output tables of China and evaluating the structural impacts on the economy, including the changes in the sectoral closeness, betweenness, risk condition, and network backbone. The modelling results demonstrate that the pandemic has accelerated the structural transformation process of the Chinese economy: the traditional growth engines, such as the petroleum and finance industries, have lagged, whereas new growth engine sectors, including the digital services and scientific research industries, have expanded rapidly. Accordingly, we propose that the government formulate policies to stabilize old growth engine industries and foster new drivers to promote a sustainable economic recovery in China.

摘要

认识到新冠疫情对经济结构的影响是疫情后时代一项迫切需要完成的任务。然而,由于缺乏最新数据以及使用了不恰当的方法,相关研究在开展这项任务时受到了阻碍。本文通过运用网络分析方法,利用中国新发布的投入产出表来填补文献空白,并评估对经济的结构影响,包括部门紧密性、中介中心性、风险状况和网络骨干的变化。建模结果表明,疫情加速了中国经济的结构转型进程:石油和金融等传统增长引擎行业滞后,而数字服务和科研等新增长引擎行业迅速扩张。因此,我们建议政府制定政策稳定旧增长引擎行业,并培育新的驱动力,以促进中国经济的可持续复苏。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d712/9526993/1481b38fc7ca/gr1_lrg.jpg

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