Prevention Research Center, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Berkeley, USA.
Department of Behavioral and Community Health Sciences, University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, USA.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2023 May;42(4):902-911. doi: 10.1111/dar.13644. Epub 2023 Mar 29.
Causal relationships between alcohol outlets and crime are inferred from their statistical associations across neighbourhoods. However, many unobserved covariates may confound these effects. Recognising that outlet sales vary by time of day and day of week, we assess whether areas with more bars/pubs, restaurants or off-premise outlets have more crime during days and times when alcohol sales are greatest.
Annual administrative crime counts, sociodemographic data and other area characteristics of 336 Census block groups in Oakland, California, USA, were related to outlet densities from 2000 to 2015. Bayesian space-time Poisson models were used to measure associations between outlet densities and crime during: (i) weekday daytime; (ii) weekday nighttime; (iii) weekend daytime; and (iv) weekend nighttime periods (four seemingly unrelated equations). Comparisons of parameter estimates across equations provided an assessment of outlet effects on crime across days and times within the same analysis units using the same constellation of confounding covariates.
Assault and driving under the influence crime incidents during weekend evening hours were more frequent in Census block group areas with greater numbers of bar/pubs. Burglaries were consistently greater in areas with greater densities of restaurants.
The spatiotemporal signature relating densities of bars/pubs over weekend evening hours to assault and driving under the influence incidents suggests that these outlets are a critical source of these crimes across neighbourhoods. Prevention programs and policies that focus upon specific drinking establishments, days and times may be most effective in reducing assault and impaired driving incidents in neighbourhoods.
通过对社区内的酒精销售点和犯罪之间的统计关联推断出因果关系。然而，许多未观察到的协变量可能会混淆这些影响。鉴于销售点的销售情况因时间和日期而异，我们评估了在酒精销售最多的日子和时间里，酒吧/酒馆、餐馆或非现场销售点较多的地区犯罪是否更多。
在美国加利福尼亚州奥克兰市的 336 个普查区，每年的行政犯罪计数、社会人口统计数据和其他地区特征与 2000 年至 2015 年期间的销售点密度有关。贝叶斯时空泊松模型用于测量销售点密度与犯罪之间的关联：（i）工作日白天；（ii）工作日夜间；（iii）周末白天；（iv）周末夜间（四个看似无关的方程）。在同一分析单位中，使用相同的混杂协变量来比较方程之间的参数估计值，可以评估销售点对不同时间和不同日期的犯罪的影响。
周末晚上的暴力袭击和酒后驾车犯罪事件在酒吧/酒馆数量较多的普查区更为频繁。在餐馆密度较大的地区，盗窃案一直较多。
周末晚上的酒吧/酒馆密度与暴力袭击和酒后驾车犯罪事件之间的时空特征表明，这些销售点是邻里社区中这些犯罪的一个关键来源。针对特定饮酒场所、日期和时间的预防计划和政策可能是减少邻里社区中暴力袭击和醉酒驾驶事件的最有效方法。
