Orrù Graziella, Ordali Erica, Monaro Merylin, Scarpazza Cristina, Conversano Ciro, Pietrini Pietro, Gemignani Angelo, Sartori Giuseppe
Department of Surgical, Medical, Molecular & Critical Area Pathology, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
Scuola IMT Alti Studi Lucca, Lucca, Italy.
Front Psychol. 2023 Jun 15;14:1093854. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1093854. eCollection 2023.
The false consensus effect consists of an overestimation of how common a subject opinion is among other people. This research demonstrates that individual endorsement of questions may be predicted by estimating peers' responses to the same question. Moreover, we aim to demonstrate how this prediction can be used to reconstruct the individual's response to a single item as well as the overall response to all of the items, making the technique suitable and effective for malingering detection.
We have validated the procedure of reconstructing individual responses from peers' estimation in two separate studies, one addressing anxiety-related questions and the other to the Dark Triad. The questionnaires, adapted to our scopes, were submitted to the groups of participants for a total of 187 subjects across both studies. Machine learning models were used to estimate the results.
According to the results, individual responses to a single question requiring a "yes" or "no" response are predicted with 70-80% accuracy. The overall participant-predicted score on all questions (total test score) is predicted with a correlation of 0.7-0.77 with actual results.
The application of the false consensus effect format is a promising procedure for reconstructing truthful responses in forensic settings when the respondent is highly likely to alter his true (genuine) response and true responses to the tests are missing.
错误共识效应是指高估某一主观意见在其他人当中的普遍程度。本研究表明，通过估计同龄人对同一问题的回答，可以预测个体对问题的认可程度。此外，我们旨在展示如何利用这种预测来重构个体对单个项目的回答以及对所有项目的总体回答，从而使该技术适用于并有效地用于伪装检测。
我们在两项独立研究中验证了根据同龄人估计重构个体回答的程序，一项研究针对与焦虑相关的问题，另一项针对黑暗三性格。根据我们的研究范围改编的问卷被提交给参与者群体，两项研究共有187名受试者。使用机器学习模型来估计结果。
根据结果，对于需要回答“是”或“否”的单个问题，个体回答的预测准确率为70%-80%。所有问题的总体参与者预测分数（总测试分数）与实际结果的相关性预测为0.7-0.77。
当受访者极有可能改变其真实（真诚）回答且缺少对测试的真实回答时，错误共识效应形式的应用是在法医环境中重构真实回答的一种有前景的程序。
