Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843;
Center for Geospatial Science, Applications and Technology (GEOSAT), Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Aug 22;114(34):8945-8950. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1606035114. Epub 2017 Jan 9.
Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7-40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.
尽管即将到来的城市化规模已经得到广泛认可，但我们对城市形态将如何变化以及它们对建筑能源使用的影响知之甚少。我们采用自上而下和自下而上的方法和情景，研究了建筑供暖和制冷的能源使用情况。在全球范围内，到本世纪中叶，供暖和制冷的能源使用量将在每年 45 到 59 艾焦耳之间（与 2010 年相比增加了 7%到 40%）。这种可变性主要是由于亚洲特别是中国快速增长城市未来的城市密度的不确定性造成的。密集的城市发展导致整体城市能源使用减少。等待市场在大约 5 年内准备好广泛部署最先进的翻新技术，然后再对现有建筑环境进行改造，这将导致建筑能源使用的更多节省。在中国，与提高效率相结合，能源使用节省的潜力最大。与南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲的“照常营业”情景相比，先进的效率差异最小，但对北美和欧洲的能源节省贡献显著。系统的努力既要关注城市形态（城市密度是一个指标），又要关注节能技术，但也要考虑与人类福祉相关的潜在共同效益和权衡取舍，这可以促进地方和全球的可持续性。特别是在发展中国家的新兴城市，这些努力可以改善数十亿城市居民的福祉，并通过减少城市地区的能源使用来为缓解气候变化做出贡献。
