Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
Universität Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2021 Apr 27;12(1):2342. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22315-9.
Climate change threatens to undermine efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. However, climate policies could impose a financial burden on the global poor through increased energy and food prices. Here, we project poverty rates until 2050 and assess how they are influenced by mitigation policies consistent with the 1.5 °C target. A continuation of historical trends will leave 350 million people globally in extreme poverty by 2030. Without progressive redistribution, climate policies would push an additional 50 million people into poverty. However, redistributing the national carbon pricing revenues domestically as an equal-per-capita climate dividend compensates this policy side effect, even leading to a small net reduction of the global poverty headcount (-6 million). An additional international climate finance scheme enables a substantial poverty reduction globally and also in Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining national redistribution with international climate finance thus provides an important entry point to climate policy in developing countries.
气候变化有可能破坏消除极端贫困的努力。然而,通过提高能源和食品价格,气候政策可能会给全球贫困人口带来经济负担。在这里,我们预测到 2050 年的贫困率,并评估它们如何受到与 1.5°C 目标一致的缓解政策的影响。如果延续历史趋势,到 2030 年,全球将有 3.5 亿人处于极端贫困之中。如果没有渐进式的再分配,气候政策将使另外 5000 万人陷入贫困。然而,将国家碳定价收入在国内作为等额的人均气候红利进行再分配,补偿了这一政策的副作用,甚至导致全球贫困人口数量略有净减少(减少 600 万人)。额外的国际气候融资计划使全球和撒哈拉以南非洲的贫困人口大量减少。因此,将国家再分配与国际气候融资相结合,为发展中国家的气候政策提供了一个重要切入点。