Kazlou Tsimafei, Cherp Aleh, Jewell Jessica
Centre for Climate and Energy Transformation (CET), University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
Nat Clim Chang. 2024;14(10):1047-1055. doi: 10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0. Epub 2024 Sep 25.
Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCOyr by 2030-lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030-2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways meet these feasibility constraints, and virtually all of them depict <600 GtCO captured and stored by 2100. Relaxing the constraints by assuming no failures of CCS plans and growth as fast as flue-gas desulfurization would approximately double this amount.
减缓气候变化需要大规模部署碳捕获与封存（CCS）技术。近期规划显示，到2030年CCS的处理能力将增长八倍，但CCS扩张的可行性仍存在争议。通过研究CCS及其他政策驱动型技术的历史增长情况，我们发现，如果在2023年至2025年期间规划翻倍且失败率减半，到2030年CCS的年处理量可达0.37亿吨二氧化碳——低于多数1.5℃升温路径下的水平，但高于多数2℃升温路径下的水平。要实现2℃的温控目标，2030年至2040年期间，CCS的增速至少要与21世纪头十年风电的增速相当，2040年之后，其增速要快于20世纪70年代至80年代核电的增速。只有10%的减排路径符合这些可行性限制，而且几乎所有这些路径都显示，到2100年捕获并封存的二氧化碳量不到600亿吨。若假设CCS规划无失败情况且增长速度与烟气脱硫技术相当，放宽这些限制条件，捕获并封存的二氧化碳量将增加约一倍。
