Descalzo Miguel Angel, de Paula Júnior Francisco José, Vergara Mallegas Natalia, Penayo Elena, Voto Carla, Goñi Natalia, Bruno Alfredo, Ferreira da Almeida Walquiria Aparecida, Ikeda do Carmo Greice Madeleine, Olivares Barraza María Fernanda, Fasce Rodrigo, Pacheco Jorge, Vázquez Cynthia, Von Horoch Marta, Battaglia Silvia, Giovacchini Carlos, Baumeister Elsa, Santoro Adrián, Buyayisqui María Pía, Alegretti Miguel, Escobar Naranjo Mónica Patricia, Jara Jorge H, Nogareda Francisco, Rodríguez Ángel, Alvis-Zakzuk Nelson Jose, Iuliano A Danielle, Azziz-Baumgartner Eduardo, Tempia Stefano, Leite Juliana Almeida, Rondy Marc, Couto Paula
Department of Public Health Emergencies, Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA.
Ministry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil.
J Infect Dis. 2025 Mar 10;231(Supplement_2):S123-S132. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf037.
We estimate annual viral influenza-associated mild-to-moderate illness, hospitalizations, and deaths in 6 South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay) during the 2015-2019 influenza seasons as a first step in evaluating the full value of influenza vaccination in the subregion.
We applied a multiplier method using monthly hospital discharge and vital statistics death records, influenza surveillance data, and population projections to estimate mild-to-moderate influenza-associated illness, hospitalizations, and deaths. We estimated the uncertainty bounds based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the Monte Carlo simulated distributions for the number of cases and obtained the ranges from the minimum value of the 2.5th and the maximum value of the 97.5th percentile.
In selected countries with a total population of 307 million people, the yearly influenza-associated burden of disease ranged between 51 and 78 million mild-to-moderate influenza illnesses, between 323 379 and 490 049 hospitalizations, and between 22 662 and 46 971 deaths during the 2015-2019 influenza seasons.
Each year, influenza is associated with millions of illnesses, hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations, and tens of thousands of deaths in 6 South American countries, affecting a significant portion of the population. Such findings can be used to estimate the number of illnesses averted through vaccination programs and the cost-benefit of influenza vaccines.
我们估算了2015 - 2019年流感季节期间，南美洲6个国家（阿根廷、巴西、智利、厄瓜多尔、巴拉圭和乌拉圭）与病毒型流感相关的轻度至中度疾病、住院和死亡情况，作为评估该次区域流感疫苗接种全部价值的第一步。
我们采用乘数法，利用每月的医院出院数据和人口动态统计死亡记录、流感监测数据以及人口预测，来估算与流感相关的轻度至中度疾病、住院和死亡情况。我们基于蒙特卡洛模拟分布的第2.5百分位数和第97.5百分位数估算不确定性界限，以获取病例数的范围，即第2.5百分位数的最小值至第97.5百分位数的最大值。
在总人口为3.07亿的选定国家中，2015 - 2019年流感季节期间，每年与流感相关的疾病负担介于5100万至7800万例轻度至中度流感疾病之间，住院病例数介于323379至490049例之间，死亡病例数介于22662至46971例之间。
每年，流感在南美洲6个国家导致数百万例疾病、数十万例住院和数万例死亡，影响了相当一部分人口。这些研究结果可用于估算通过疫苗接种计划避免的疾病数量以及流感疫苗的成本效益。
