Jindal Mehak, Stone Haley, Lim Samsung, MacIntyre C Raina
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of New South Wales Sydney Sydney NSW Australia.
Biosecurity Program Kirby Institute University of New South Wales Sydney Sydney NSW Australia.
Geohealth. 2025 Mar 25;9(3):e2024GH001296. doi: 10.1029/2024GH001296. eCollection 2025 Mar.
This study presents the interplay between wild bird migrations and global poultry trade in the unprecedented spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza, particularly the H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b strain, across the world and diverse ecosystems from 2020 to 2023. We theorized the role of migratory birds in spreading pathogens as various wild bird species traverse major flyways between the northern and southern hemispheres. Simultaneously, we analyzed the global poultry trade data to assess its role in H5N1's anthropogenic spread, highlighting how human economic activities intersect with natural avian behaviors in disease dynamics. Lastly, we conducted spatial hotspot analysis to identify areas of significant clustering of H5N1 outbreak points over different bird families from 2003 to 2023. This approach provides a strong framework for identifying specific regions at higher risk for H5N1 outbreaks and upon which to further evaluate these patterns with targeted intervention studies and research into what is driving these patterns. Our findings indicate that both the poultry sector and wild bird migrations significantly contribute to global H5N1 transmission, which helps better understanding of H5N1 transmission mechanisms when combined with ecological, epidemiological, and socio-economic perspectives. The results are intended to inform policy-making and strategic planning in wildlife conservation and the poultry trade to improve public health and animal welfare globally.
本研究展示了在2020年至2023年期间，高致病性禽流感，特别是H5N1进化分支2.3.4.4b毒株，在全球范围内以及跨越不同生态系统的前所未有的传播过程中，野生鸟类迁徙与全球家禽贸易之间的相互作用。我们推测候鸟在传播病原体方面的作用，因为各种野生鸟类物种穿越南北半球之间的主要飞行路线。同时，我们分析了全球家禽贸易数据，以评估其在H5N1人为传播中的作用，突出了人类经济活动在疾病动态中如何与自然鸟类行为相互交织。最后，我们进行了空间热点分析，以确定2003年至2023年期间不同鸟类家族中H5N1爆发点的显著聚集区域。这种方法为识别H5N1爆发风险较高的特定区域提供了一个强大的框架，并在此基础上通过有针对性的干预研究以及对驱动这些模式的因素的研究来进一步评估这些模式。我们的研究结果表明，家禽部门和野生鸟类迁徙都对全球H5N1传播有重大贡献，当结合生态、流行病学和社会经济视角时，这有助于更好地理解H5N1传播机制。这些结果旨在为野生动物保护和家禽贸易方面的政策制定和战略规划提供信息，以改善全球公共卫生和动物福利。
