Long-term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in China (1990 to 2040): an age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 data.

BACKGROUND

The growing burden of ovarian cancer is attracting widespread attention; the impact factors and the evolution trend of ovarian cancer burden need to be further studied.

METHODS

Ovarian cancer disease burden data for Chinese women were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021. We performed Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis to evaluate evolution trends across age, period, and cohort dimensions and identify contributing factors. Using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, we projected incidence and mortality trends through 2040.

RESULTS

In 2021, China recorded approximately 41,240 new ovarian cancer cases and 25,140 related deaths. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years fluctuated but increased steadily after 2015, with annual percentage changes of 1.6% (95%CI: 1.4%, 1.8%), 1.6% (95%CI: 1.4%, 1.9%), and 1.5% (95%CI: 1.3%, 1.6%), respectively. The APC model revealed a significant age effect with peak incidence occurring at 65-69 years; a period effect showing incidence and mortality rates resurged after 2015; and the cohort effects demonstrating bimodal incidence peaks in the birth cohorts of 1910-1914 and 1935-1939. Specifically, a 1% increase in the obesity rate was associated with a 3.06 (95%CI: 0.84, 5.28; = 0.007) per 100,000 rise in ovarian cancer incidence. BAPC projections suggest that the ASRs of incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in China will continue rising through 2040, possibly exceeding global trends.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of ovarian cancer in China remains significant; the increasing obesity rate in women may be a driver. The ovarian cancer burden has resurged in China since 2015, and it is projected to continue increasing by 2040.