Huang Miaoling, Guan Meimei, Rao Qunxian, Chen Qing, Wang Jiating, Fan Zhongyi, Xiao Jianpeng, Liu Changhao
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
Front Oncol. 2025 Aug 14;15:1652347. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2025.1652347. eCollection 2025.
The growing burden of ovarian cancer is attracting widespread attention; the impact factors and the evolution trend of ovarian cancer burden need to be further studied.
Ovarian cancer disease burden data for Chinese women were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021. We performed Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis to evaluate evolution trends across age, period, and cohort dimensions and identify contributing factors. Using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, we projected incidence and mortality trends through 2040.
In 2021, China recorded approximately 41,240 new ovarian cancer cases and 25,140 related deaths. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years fluctuated but increased steadily after 2015, with annual percentage changes of 1.6% (95%CI: 1.4%, 1.8%), 1.6% (95%CI: 1.4%, 1.9%), and 1.5% (95%CI: 1.3%, 1.6%), respectively. The APC model revealed a significant age effect with peak incidence occurring at 65-69 years; a period effect showing incidence and mortality rates resurged after 2015; and the cohort effects demonstrating bimodal incidence peaks in the birth cohorts of 1910-1914 and 1935-1939. Specifically, a 1% increase in the obesity rate was associated with a 3.06 (95%CI: 0.84, 5.28; = 0.007) per 100,000 rise in ovarian cancer incidence. BAPC projections suggest that the ASRs of incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in China will continue rising through 2040, possibly exceeding global trends.
The burden of ovarian cancer in China remains significant; the increasing obesity rate in women may be a driver. The ovarian cancer burden has resurged in China since 2015, and it is projected to continue increasing by 2040.
卵巢癌负担日益加重，引发广泛关注；卵巢癌负担的影响因素及演变趋势有待深入研究。
中国女性卵巢癌疾病负担数据来源于《2021年全球疾病负担研究》。我们进行了年龄-时期-队列（APC）分析，以评估年龄、时期和队列维度的演变趋势，并确定影响因素。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型，我们预测了到2040年的发病率和死亡率趋势。
2021年，中国约有41240例卵巢癌新发病例和25140例相关死亡病例。1990年至2021年，发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年的年龄标准化率呈波动变化，但在2015年后稳步上升，年变化率分别为1.6%（95%CI：1.4%，1.8%）、1.6%（95%CI：1.4%，1.9%）和1.5%（95%CI：1.3%，1.6%）。APC模型显示出显著的年龄效应，发病高峰出现在65-69岁；时期效应表明2015年后发病率和死亡率有所回升；队列效应显示出生队列1910-1914年和1935-1939年出现双峰发病高峰。具体而言，肥胖率每增加1%，卵巢癌发病率每10万人上升3.06（95%CI：0.84，5.28；P = 0.007）。BAPC预测表明，到2040年中国卵巢癌发病率和死亡率的年龄标准化率将持续上升，可能超过全球趋势。
中国卵巢癌负担依然沉重；女性肥胖率上升可能是一个驱动因素。自2015年以来，中国卵巢癌负担有所回升，预计到2040年将持续增加。
