Diagnostic Utility of Serum CEA and Ca 19.9 as Triage Tools for Predicting Metastatic Disease in Gallbladder Cancer: A Sub-analysis from a Prospective Observational Study.

PURPOSE

Gallbladder cancer is a highly aggressive malignancy with disproportionate incidence in the Gangetic belt of India. Early diagnosis is critical yet most patients present with advanced-stage disease. Serum tumor markers like CEA and Ca 19.9 are often elevated in gallbladder cancer, but their role in rapidly triaging patients for metastatic disease at presentation has not been prospectively validated in prospective cohort.

METHODS

This sub-analysis is part of a larger prospective observational study conducted at a tertiary cancer center in North India. A total of 1500 newly diagnosed, treatment-naïve or incidental gallbladder cancer patients were enrolled between September 2023 and May 2024. Serum CEA and Ca 19.9 levels were measured at baseline. Diagnostic thresholds were derived using the 75th percentile values stratified by obstructive jaundice status. Diagnostic accuracy for predicting metastatic disease was assessed using confusion matrices, ROC curves, and precision-recall analysis.

RESULTS

Of 1500 patients, 1203 (80.2%) presented with metastatic disease. Serum data were available for 1011 patients. Patients with metastatic disease had significantly higher marker levels (CEA: mean 288.4 vs. 22.9 ng/mL; Ca 19.9: 20,917 vs. 2241 U/mL). The model showed high specificity (89.1%) and positive predictive value (92.3%) with moderate AUC (0.74). Sensitivity was limited (40.3%), suggesting strong "rule-in" but weak "rule-out" capability.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated serum CEA and Ca 19.9 adjusted for jaundice status are strong indicators of metastatic gallbladder cancer at presentation. This real-world percentile-based approach offers a rapid, low-cost diagnostic adjunct for early triage in resource-limited settings. The findings provide context-sensitive thresholds that may aid timely treatment decisions in high-burden regions.