Warner K E, Murt H A
Am J Public Health. 1983 Jun;73(6):672-7. doi: 10.2105/ajph.73.6.672.
The antismoking campaign has encouraged millions of people to quit smoking cigarettes and millions of others not to initiate the habit. Because quitting smoking, or deciding not to start, reduces one's mortality risks relative to the continuing smoker, we estimate that these consumption impacts resulted in the avoidance of more than 200,000 premature smoking-related deaths during 1964-1978. On average, each of these premature deaths averted translates into 23 additional years of life. Furthermore, campaign-related smoking cessation and non-initiation during the 1964-1978 period will result in the avoidance of many more premature deaths in the coming decades. Although these figures suggest that the antismoking campaign has been successful, tens of millions of Americans continue to smoke and the premature deaths avoided constitute only a small fraction of the 4 million deaths attributable to smoking that occurred during the same years.
反吸烟运动鼓励了数百万人戒烟，也促使数百万其他人没有养成吸烟的习惯。由于戒烟或决定不开始吸烟相对于持续吸烟者而言降低了死亡风险，我们估计这些消费影响在1964年至1978年期间避免了超过20万例与吸烟相关的过早死亡。平均而言，每避免一例过早死亡就意味着多活23年。此外，1964年至1978年期间与运动相关的戒烟和不吸烟行为将在未来几十年避免更多的过早死亡。尽管这些数据表明反吸烟运动取得了成功，但仍有数千万美国人继续吸烟，所避免的过早死亡仅占同期因吸烟导致的400万死亡人数的一小部分。
