Schulenberg J, O'Malley P M, Bachman J G, Wadsworth K N, Johnston L D
Survey Research Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48106-1248, USA.
J Stud Alcohol. 1996 May;57(3):289-304. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1996.57.289.
The purpose of this study was: (1) to identify different trajectories of frequent binge drinking during the transition to young adulthood; (2) to validate the trajectories by relating them to behaviors and attitudes concerning alcohol and other drug use; and (3) to distinguish among the trajectories according to demographic characteristics and lifestyle experiences typical of the transition to young adulthood.
Four waves of national panel data were obtained from the Monitoring the Future project; 9,945 weighted cases from the 1976-85 high school senior year cohorts were surveyed at biennial intervals between ages 18 and 24. Frequent binge drinking was defined as having five or more drinks in a row at least twice in the past two weeks.
Six distinct frequent binge drinking trajectory groups were specified a priori and confirmed with cluster analysis: Never, Rare, Chronic, Decreased, Increased and "Fling." Repeated measures ANOVAS revealed that the trajectories corresponded to patterns of change and stability in problems with alcohol, attitudes about heavy drinking, peer heavy drinking and illicit drug use. Results from logistic regression analyses predicting diverging and converging trajectories provided some support for the general hypothesis that trajectories of Chronic and Increased frequent binge drinking over time are associated with difficulties in negotiating the transition to young adulthood.
The findings provide strong evidence for wide developmental variation in drinking patterns in the population, variation that is obscured by more aggregate-level considerations. The developmental variation in frequent binge drinking during the transition to young adulthood reflects systematic variation in success and difficulties with negotiating the transition.
本研究的目的是：（1）确定向青年期过渡期间频繁暴饮的不同轨迹；（2）通过将这些轨迹与有关酒精和其他药物使用的行为及态度联系起来，验证这些轨迹；（3）根据向青年期过渡的典型人口统计学特征和生活方式经历，区分这些轨迹。
从“监测未来”项目中获取了四轮全国性面板数据；对1976 - 1985年高中毕业班队列中的9945个加权案例，在18至24岁之间每两年进行一次调查。频繁暴饮被定义为在过去两周内至少连续两次饮用五杯及以上的酒。
预先设定了六个不同的频繁暴饮轨迹组，并通过聚类分析得到确认：从不、极少、慢性、减少、增加和“放纵”。重复测量方差分析表明，这些轨迹与酒精问题、对大量饮酒的态度、同伴大量饮酒和非法药物使用方面的变化及稳定模式相对应。预测不同轨迹和趋同轨迹的逻辑回归分析结果，为慢性和频繁暴饮增加的轨迹随时间推移与向青年期过渡困难相关的一般假设提供了一些支持。
研究结果为人群饮酒模式存在广泛的发展差异提供了有力证据，这种差异在更综合层面的考量中被掩盖了。向青年期过渡期间频繁暴饮的发展差异反映了在过渡过程中成功与困难方面的系统差异。
