疫苗接种对麻疹动态传播的空间相关性和持续性的影响。
Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics.
作者信息
Bolker B M, Grenfell B T
机构信息
Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, United Kingdom.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1996 Oct 29;93(22):12648-53. doi: 10.1073/pnas.93.22.12648.
Abstract
The onset of measles vaccination in England and Wales in 1968 coincided with a marked drop in the temporal correlation of epidemic patterns between major cities. We analyze a variety of hypotheses for the mechanisms driving this change. Straightforward stochastic models suggest that the interaction between a lowered susceptible population (and hence increased demographic noise) and nonlinear dynamics is sufficient to cause the observed drop in correlation. The decorrelation of epidemics could potentially lessen the chance of global extinction and so inhibit attempts at measles eradication.
摘要
1968年在英格兰和威尔士开始接种麻疹疫苗，与此同时，主要城市之间流行模式的时间相关性显著下降。我们分析了导致这种变化的各种机制假说。简单的随机模型表明，易感人群数量减少（从而增加了人口统计学噪声）与非线性动力学之间的相互作用足以导致观察到的相关性下降。疫情的去相关性可能会降低全球灭绝的可能性，从而抑制根除麻疹的努力。
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