石棉厂工人间皮瘤死亡率的预测。
Predictions of mortality from mesothelial tumours in asbestos factory workers.
作者信息
Newhouse M L, Berry G
出版信息
Br J Ind Med. 1976 Aug;33(3):147-51. doi: 10.1136/oem.33.3.147.
Abstract
Using the accumulated data on deaths from mesothelial tumours among cohorts of male and female factory workers at a London asbestos textile factory, the mortality from this cause up to the year 2000 AD has been predicted. The limitations of the methods used are pointed out, but it is estimated that for men the mortality due to mesothelial tumours will be between 7% and 11% of the total mortality and somewhat higher for women. The highest number of deaths from mesothelial tumours will occur during the 1980s, thereafter the numbers will decline because of the decreasing size of the cohort resulting from general mortality.
摘要
利用伦敦一家石棉纺织厂男女工人队列间皮瘤死亡的累积数据，预测了截至公元2000年该病因导致的死亡率。文中指出了所用方法的局限性，但据估计，男性因间皮瘤导致的死亡率将占总死亡率的7%至11%，女性的这一比例略高。间皮瘤死亡人数最多的情况将出现在20世纪80年代，此后由于总体死亡率导致队列规模缩小，死亡人数将下降。
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