Donnelly Christl A, Fisher Matthew C, Fraser Christophe, Ghani Azra C, Riley Steven, Ferguson Neil M, Anderson Roy M
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK.
Lancet Infect Dis. 2004 Nov;4(11):672-83. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(04)01173-9.
The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in 2002-2003 showed how quickly a novel infectious disease can spread both within communities and internationally. We have reviewed the epidemiological and genetic analyses that have been published both during and since these epidemics, and show how quickly data were collected and analyses undertaken. Key factors that determine the speed and scale of transmission of an infectious disease were estimated using statistical and mathematical modelling approaches, and phylogenetic analyses provided insights into the origin and evolution of the SARS-associated coronavirus. The SARS literature continues to grow, and it is hoped that international collaboration in the analysis of epidemiological and contact-network databases will provide further insights into the spread of this newly emergent infectious disease.
2002 - 2003年的严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)疫情表明,一种新型传染病在社区内和国际上传播的速度有多快。我们回顾了在这些疫情期间及之后发表的流行病学和基因分析,展示了数据收集和分析的速度有多快。使用统计和数学建模方法估计了决定传染病传播速度和规模的关键因素,系统发育分析为与SARS相关的冠状病毒的起源和进化提供了见解。关于SARS的文献不断增加,希望在流行病学和接触网络数据库分析方面的国际合作将为这种新出现的传染病的传播提供进一步的见解。