Population Council, One Dag Hammarjskold Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2009 Nov;63(3):203-13. doi: 10.1080/00324720903165456.
The distinction between senescent and non-senescent mortality proves to be very valuable for describing and analysing age patterns of death rates. Unfortunately, standard methods for estimating these mortality components are lacking. The first part of this paper discusses alternative methods for estimating background and senescent mortality among adults and proposes a simple approach based on death rates by causes of death. The second part examines trends in senescent life expectancy (i.e., the life expectancy implied by senescent mortality) and compares them with trends in conventional longevity indicators between 1960 and 2000 in a group of 17 developed countries with low mortality. Senescent life expectancy for females rises at an average rate of 1.54 years per decade between 1960 and 2000 in these countries. The shape of the distribution of senescent deaths by age remains relatively invariant while the entire distribution shifts over time to higher ages as longevity rises.
衰老和非衰老死亡率之间的区别对于描述和分析死亡率的年龄模式非常有价值。不幸的是，缺乏估计这些死亡率成分的标准方法。本文的第一部分讨论了在成年人中估计背景和衰老死亡率的替代方法，并提出了一种基于死因死亡率的简单方法。第二部分考察了 17 个低死亡率发达国家在 1960 年至 2000 年间衰老预期寿命（即由衰老死亡率所暗示的预期寿命）的趋势，并将其与传统长寿指标的趋势进行了比较。在这些国家，女性的衰老预期寿命在 1960 年至 2000 年间以平均每年 1.54 年的速度上升。随着寿命的延长，衰老死亡的年龄分布形状相对不变，而整个分布随着时间向更高的年龄转移。
