Balcan Duygu, Colizza Vittoria, Singer Andrew C, Chouaid Christos, Hu Hao, Gonçalves Bruno, Bajardi Paolo, Poletto Chiara, Ramasco Jose J, Perra Nicola, Tizzoni Michele, Paolotti Daniela, Van den Broeck Wouter, Valleron Alainjacques, Vespignani Alessandro
Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA.
PLoS Curr. 2009 Dec 7;1:RRN1133. doi: 10.1371/currents.rrn1133.
While the H1N1 pandemic is reaching high levels of influenza activity in the Northern Hemisphere, the attention focuses on the ability of national health systems to respond to the expected massive influx of additional patients. Given the limited capacity of health care providers and hospitals and the limited supplies of antibiotics, it is important to predict the potential demand on critical care to assist planning for the management of resources and plan for additional stockpiling. We develop a disease model that considers the development of influenza-associated complications and incorporate it into a global epidemic model to assess the expected surge in critical care demands due to viral and bacterial pneumonia. Based on the most recent estimates of complication rates, we predict the expected peak number of intensive care unit beds and the stockpile of antibiotic courses needed for the current pandemic wave. The effects of dynamic vaccination campaigns, and of variations of the relative proportion of bacterial co-infection in complications and different length of staying in the intensive care unit are explored.
虽然甲型H1N1流感大流行在北半球的流感活动正达到高水平，但注意力集中在国家卫生系统应对预计大量新增患者涌入的能力上。鉴于医疗服务提供者和医院的能力有限以及抗生素供应有限，预测重症监护的潜在需求对于协助资源管理规划和额外储备规划很重要。我们开发了一个考虑流感相关并发症发展的疾病模型，并将其纳入全球流行模型，以评估由于病毒性和细菌性肺炎导致的重症监护需求预期激增情况。基于最新的并发症发生率估计，我们预测了当前大流行波所需的重症监护病床预期峰值数量以及抗生素疗程储备量。还探讨了动态疫苗接种运动的影响，以及并发症中细菌合并感染相对比例变化和在重症监护病房不同住院时长的影响。
