Academic Forum for Nuclear Awareness, Israel.
National Center for Nuclear Research, Poland.
Dose Response. 2013 Nov 7;12(2):342-8. doi: 10.2203/dose-response.13-044.Socol. eCollection 2014 May.
The linear no-threshold (LNT) model of ionizing-radiation-induced cancer is based on the assumption that every radiation dose increment constitutes increased cancer risk for humans. The risk is hypothesized to increase linearly as the total dose increases. While this model is the basis for radiation safety regulations, its scientific validity has been questioned and debated for many decades. The recent memorandum of the International Commission on Radiological Protection admits that the LNT-model predictions at low doses are "speculative, unproven, undetectable and 'phantom'." Moreover, numerous experimental, ecological, and epidemiological studies show that low doses of sparsely-ionizing or sparsely-ionizing plus highly-ionizing radiation may be beneficial to human health (hormesis/adaptive response). The present LNT-model-based regulations impose excessive costs on the society. For example, the median-cost medical program is 5000 times more cost-efficient in saving lives than controlling radiation emissions. There are also lives lost: e.g., following Fukushima accident, more than 1000 disaster-related yet non-radiogenic premature deaths were officially registered among the population evacuated due to radiation concerns. Additional negative impacts of LNT-model-inspired radiophobia include: refusal of some patients to undergo potentially life-saving medical imaging; discouragement of the study of low-dose radiation therapies; motivation for radiological terrorism and promotion of nuclear proliferation.
线性无阈(LNT)模型是基于这样一种假设,即每增加一个辐射剂量增量都会增加人类患癌症的风险。假设风险随总剂量的增加而线性增加。虽然该模型是辐射安全法规的基础,但几十年来其科学有效性一直受到质疑和争论。最近国际放射防护委员会的备忘录承认,低剂量下 LNT 模型的预测是“推测的、未经证实的、无法检测的和‘幽灵般的’”。此外,大量的实验、生态和流行病学研究表明,低剂量的稀疏电离或稀疏电离加高电离辐射可能对人类健康有益(适应性反应)。目前基于 LNT 模型的法规给社会带来了过高的成本。例如,挽救生命的中值医疗方案比控制辐射排放的成本效率高出 5000 倍。此外,还造成了生命的损失:例如,在福岛事故之后,由于辐射问题而撤离的人群中,官方登记了超过 1000 例与辐射无关的过早死亡。LNT 模型引发的恐辐射症的其他负面影响包括:一些患者拒绝接受可能挽救生命的医学成像;阻碍低剂量辐射疗法的研究;引发放射性恐怖主义和促进核扩散的动机。